高雄捷運是不是窮到沒辦法開冷氣? - 高雄
By Xanthe
at 2021-05-11T02:37
at 2021-05-11T02:37
Table of Contents
→ wingthink : 美麗島當初預估的應該是完全體的運量吧?可惜不知何05/10 14:47
→ wingthink : 年何月才能完全體www05/10 14:47
推 JeffMnO4 : 完全體前提是當年四條高運量全部通過吧 05/10 14:57
→ btwsniper : 就算是完全體,美麗島站的進出人次會比古亭、東門、05/10 15:01
→ btwsniper : 民權東路站多嗎?05/10 15:01
推 wingthink : 那是平行宇宙才能解答的事情了,現實就是高捷是未完 05/10 15:04
→ wingthink : 成品05/10 15:04
不必等平行宇宙解答,交通工程顧問公司就是靠這行吃飯的。
看到很多人在講當年運量估計的問題,其實高雄捷運的問題並非是眾人事後諸葛,
早在台北捷運都尚未通車的1994年成書的《4444億的教訓》就已經提前預見今日情形了。
捷運要蓋之前都會有顧問公司進行運量分析,高捷的運量分析是如何呢?
剛好現在已經達到當年運量估計的年份了,一起來看看高捷是如何估計的吧:
高雄都會區估計未來每日會有通勤500萬人次,其中10%是屬於捷運,
也就是高捷會有每日50萬人次的運量。
然而當年對高雄都會區的人口估計是直到2020年時會有300萬人口,
也就是說包含老人、小孩的所有高雄市民每天必須發生一次以上的運量,
運量估計膨風的問題顯而易見。
此外高雄公車運量僅為20萬人次/日,與台北近100萬差距甚大,
本就不習於利用大眾運輸的市民怎可能因為捷運通車就一夕之間改變習慣。
而根據該書,曾有歐洲顧問公司做過高捷的運量分析,
至2020年時高雄所有的捷運路網(紅橘藍棕)都只達到中運量規模,
而高雄現今蓋的高運量紅橘線,不僅興建成本較中運量高出兩成,
更導致今日維護的費用高昂,連冷氣都不能開。
而若當年採中運量興建,也許藍棕線就不會被取消,不必到今日還在苦等黃線,
更別說2010年代初期中央政府因高雄捷運的運量低迷退回了一堆縣市的軌道建設計畫...
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高雄
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