關於罷免高雄市長的難度 - 高雄
By Wallis
at 2019-07-05T19:49
at 2019-07-05T19:49
Table of Contents
※ 引述《Fslove (不要唱衰高雄)》之銘言:
: 既然最近要罷免韓導在高雄版炒得沸沸揚揚的,那今天就來談談如何能"成功的罷免"吧!
: 板上有人已經詳細註明第二階段要如何達成,而且使盡全力的鼓勵各位高雄板友去連署
: ,這邊就不贅述了。
: 我們就來談談第三階段吧! 先看看成立的條件"第三階段:投票 (同意罷免票數多於不同
: 意罷免且超過選區25%得票率)-取自維基百科"
: 依高雄投票人口數2,281,338人來算,如果進到第三階段,代表至少要有570,335人連署罷
: 免(即投票人口數的25%),加上歷屆罷免的無效票率0.68%,保險起見至少要585849人聯署
: 投贊成罷免
: 附上連結: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%BD%B7%E5%85%8D%
: E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6
: 58.6萬罷免票在高雄是什麼概念呢? 會很困難嗎? 我直接下結論:"如果明天就開始
: 第三階段,那韓國瑜很難被成功罷免"
: 口說無憑,看看歷史數據吧!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEkVAB8HL14
6:30
陳柏惟對於罷免多方意見的總結
我覺得大家都可以參考看看
做就對了
: 1. 依遠見雜誌在2019/5/30所做的六都首長滿意度調查統計,韓國瑜的施政滿意度為57.9
: %,不滿意度則為26.6%
: 附上連結 https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=64419
今天7/5號
這份首長滿意度
跟現況有很大落差吧...
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2019-06-24/263970
撇除機構效應
多數民調公司做出來的都是韓國瑜不滿意度高達6成左右耶...
上面6/24之前的民調是5成2
最新的已經到達5成7
又上升5%
(你有看政論節目的話都知道
謝震武的面對面也有整理相關資料
謝震武的立場總不是綠營派來的吧?)
所以你下面推論的2.3一點意義都沒有
因為已經是過期的資料了
這盲點你有發現嗎?
: 2. 先假設"滿意的人&沒意見的人,不會去投罷免票",也就是說不滿意的26.6%人數裡,
: 至少要有94%的人願意參與罷免投票,才能達到25%的同
: 意罷免人數。
: 3. 盡管再怎樣關心政治,投票率也不可能94%,有些人要上班,有些公務人員要負責選務
: 工作,還有北漂南漂各處漂的,沒辦法及時參與
: 高雄縣市合併後,市長選舉的人民投票率:2014年 - 66.44%; 2018年- 72.63%
: 假設明天就投票罷免來估算投票人口:26.6%不滿意的人想投罷免票的人裡面,實際能參
: 與投票的72.63%人口去投票,所得"投同意罷免票"人口數約為"440,745",很不幸的,結
: 果會是"失敗"。
: 但,局勢還是會隨時間有所變化的,以上只是參考而已,假設不滿意率達到34.5%,隔天
: 就投票,那韓導還是很有機會成為台灣第一個被罷免的縣市長。
: 一個國家的人民願意花時間關心政治,人越多年齡層越年輕,那這個國家就會越強大(當
: 然要扣除一些帶風向的惡劣網軍)。
: 我抱怨花媽的考古文,那種萬年老梗不用再貼了,韓導做不好的我也是照樣噓,希望高雄
: 會更好,加油吧各位!
去年11/24
板上在吵
輸不起
贏不起
韓市府
12/25上任第一件事
大喊高雄沒錢
不顧現況
硬是找每月代言人
然後幫高雄代言的藝人還要自費
搞出冰冰虎拳事件
(還衍生出齊柏林導演逝世後 影像作品版權爭議)
阿諾 鄧紫琪 迪士尼 一堆狗屁倒灶的事
都打不了韓國瑜的高支持度
但不好意思
因為他太常使用屁眼看人這項特技
導致他括約肌完全沒辦法控制之後
說什麼做什麼
都跟大便一樣臭
使得大家的忍耐度到了極限
破口一出
沒一個月的時間
不滿意度驟升
大家不是沒給他機會
是他用了半年消磨掉全高雄市民的耐心 愛心跟89萬人的期待
後面還有颱風季
很多市井小民聽到二備金被花到剩一半
心情真的是在挫勒蛋
沒人說第三階段罷免一定會成功
但是不做
永遠不可能會成功
高雄不應該被唱衰
但會被錯的人做衰
不是高雄人無情
今天我們不罷免他
倒楣的是高雄市民
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/2841713
現任市長
只做了半年
講出這樣的話
你能不心寒嗎?
引述內文:
如果民眾沒有讓我出線,民調沒過,我想做沒辦法,我一定要把高雄市建設得好,
這是我對高雄市民的承諾
韓國瑜
不好意思
在你11/24當選那天
你對高雄市民的承諾就已經開始
--
: 既然最近要罷免韓導在高雄版炒得沸沸揚揚的,那今天就來談談如何能"成功的罷免"吧!
: 板上有人已經詳細註明第二階段要如何達成,而且使盡全力的鼓勵各位高雄板友去連署
: ,這邊就不贅述了。
: 我們就來談談第三階段吧! 先看看成立的條件"第三階段:投票 (同意罷免票數多於不同
: 意罷免且超過選區25%得票率)-取自維基百科"
: 依高雄投票人口數2,281,338人來算,如果進到第三階段,代表至少要有570,335人連署罷
: 免(即投票人口數的25%),加上歷屆罷免的無效票率0.68%,保險起見至少要585849人聯署
: 投贊成罷免
: 附上連結: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%BD%B7%E5%85%8D%
: E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6
: 58.6萬罷免票在高雄是什麼概念呢? 會很困難嗎? 我直接下結論:"如果明天就開始
: 第三階段,那韓國瑜很難被成功罷免"
: 口說無憑,看看歷史數據吧!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEkVAB8HL14
陳柏惟對於罷免多方意見的總結
我覺得大家都可以參考看看
做就對了
: 1. 依遠見雜誌在2019/5/30所做的六都首長滿意度調查統計,韓國瑜的施政滿意度為57.9
: %,不滿意度則為26.6%
: 附上連結 https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=64419
今天7/5號
這份首長滿意度
跟現況有很大落差吧...
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2019-06-24/263970
撇除機構效應
多數民調公司做出來的都是韓國瑜不滿意度高達6成左右耶...
上面6/24之前的民調是5成2
最新的已經到達5成7
又上升5%
(你有看政論節目的話都知道
謝震武的面對面也有整理相關資料
謝震武的立場總不是綠營派來的吧?)
所以你下面推論的2.3一點意義都沒有
因為已經是過期的資料了
這盲點你有發現嗎?
: 2. 先假設"滿意的人&沒意見的人,不會去投罷免票",也就是說不滿意的26.6%人數裡,
: 至少要有94%的人願意參與罷免投票,才能達到25%的同
: 意罷免人數。
: 3. 盡管再怎樣關心政治,投票率也不可能94%,有些人要上班,有些公務人員要負責選務
: 工作,還有北漂南漂各處漂的,沒辦法及時參與
: 高雄縣市合併後,市長選舉的人民投票率:2014年 - 66.44%; 2018年- 72.63%
: 假設明天就投票罷免來估算投票人口:26.6%不滿意的人想投罷免票的人裡面,實際能參
: 與投票的72.63%人口去投票,所得"投同意罷免票"人口數約為"440,745",很不幸的,結
: 果會是"失敗"。
: 但,局勢還是會隨時間有所變化的,以上只是參考而已,假設不滿意率達到34.5%,隔天
: 就投票,那韓導還是很有機會成為台灣第一個被罷免的縣市長。
: 一個國家的人民願意花時間關心政治,人越多年齡層越年輕,那這個國家就會越強大(當
: 然要扣除一些帶風向的惡劣網軍)。
: 我抱怨花媽的考古文,那種萬年老梗不用再貼了,韓導做不好的我也是照樣噓,希望高雄
: 會更好,加油吧各位!
去年11/24
板上在吵
輸不起
贏不起
韓市府
12/25上任第一件事
大喊高雄沒錢
不顧現況
硬是找每月代言人
然後幫高雄代言的藝人還要自費
搞出冰冰虎拳事件
(還衍生出齊柏林導演逝世後 影像作品版權爭議)
阿諾 鄧紫琪 迪士尼 一堆狗屁倒灶的事
都打不了韓國瑜的高支持度
但不好意思
因為他太常使用屁眼看人這項特技
導致他括約肌完全沒辦法控制之後
說什麼做什麼
都跟大便一樣臭
使得大家的忍耐度到了極限
破口一出
沒一個月的時間
不滿意度驟升
大家不是沒給他機會
是他用了半年消磨掉全高雄市民的耐心 愛心跟89萬人的期待
後面還有颱風季
很多市井小民聽到二備金被花到剩一半
心情真的是在挫勒蛋
沒人說第三階段罷免一定會成功
但是不做
永遠不可能會成功
高雄不應該被唱衰
但會被錯的人做衰
不是高雄人無情
今天我們不罷免他
倒楣的是高雄市民
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/2841713
現任市長
只做了半年
講出這樣的話
你能不心寒嗎?
引述內文:
如果民眾沒有讓我出線,民調沒過,我想做沒辦法,我一定要把高雄市建設得好,
這是我對高雄市民的承諾
韓國瑜
不好意思
在你11/24當選那天
你對高雄市民的承諾就已經開始
--
Tags:
高雄
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