關於罷免高雄市長的難度 - 高雄
By Poppy
at 2019-07-05T15:44
at 2019-07-05T15:44
Table of Contents
既然最近要罷免韓導在高雄版炒得沸沸揚揚的,那今天就來談談如何能"成功的罷免"吧!
板上有人已經詳細註明第二階段要如何達成,而且使盡全力的鼓勵各位高雄板友去連署
,這邊就不贅述了。
我們就來談談第三階段吧! 先看看成立的條件"第三階段:投票 (同意罷免票數多於不同
意罷免且超過選區25%得票率)-取自維基百科"
依高雄投票人口數2,281,338人來算,如果進到第三階段,代表至少要有570,335人連署罷
免(即投票人口數的25%),加上歷屆罷免的無效票率0.68%,保險起見至少要585849人聯署
投贊成罷免
附上連結: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%BD%B7%E5%85%8D%
E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6
58.6萬罷免票在高雄是什麼概念呢? 會很困難嗎? 我直接下結論:"如果明天就開始
第三階段,那韓國瑜很難被成功罷免"
口說無憑,看看歷史數據吧!
1. 依遠見雜誌在2019/5/30所做的六都首長滿意度調查統計,韓國瑜的施政滿意度為57.9
%,不滿意度則為26.6%
附上連結 https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=64419
2. 先假設"滿意的人&沒意見的人,不會去投罷免票",也就是說不滿意的26.6%人數裡,
至少要有94%的人願意參與罷免投票,才能達到25%的同
意罷免人數。
3. 盡管再怎樣關心政治,投票率也不可能94%,有些人要上班,有些公務人員要負責選務
工作,還有北漂南漂各處漂的,沒辦法及時參與
高雄縣市合併後,市長選舉的人民投票率:2014年 - 66.44%; 2018年- 72.63%
假設明天就投票罷免來估算投票人口:26.6%不滿意的人想投罷免票的人裡面,實際能參
與投票的72.63%人口去投票,所得"投同意罷免票"人口數約為"440,745",很不幸的,結
果會是"失敗"。
但,局勢還是會隨時間有所變化的,以上只是參考而已,假設不滿意率達到34.5%,隔天
就投票,那韓導還是很有機會成為台灣第一個被罷免的縣市長。
一個國家的人民願意花時間關心政治,人越多年齡層越年輕,那這個國家就會越強大(當
然要扣除一些帶風向的惡劣網軍)。
我抱怨花媽的考古文,那種萬年老梗不用再貼了,韓導做不好的我也是照樣噓,希望高雄
會更好,加油吧各位!
----本文警語----------------------------------
本篇推文禁止出現政治人物或與其有關之內容,
違者將向板主以高雄板規 6-1 或 6-5 檢舉。
----以上警語請自行決定是否刪除----------------
--(以下請勿刪除)------------------------------
高雄板非心情板、個板,無關高雄廣泛市民之文章請勿張貼。
例如:我家隔壁的母貓生了小貓、對面的阿婆一個人獨居之類的。
這裡是高雄板,請討論與多數高雄市民有直接關聯性的文章。
高雄點請參考板規1-2
修改文章標題請於文章列表按大寫T
修改文章內文請於文章列表按大寫E
同性質文章請以大E修改內文方式加註,請勿於板上重覆多發
--
板上有人已經詳細註明第二階段要如何達成,而且使盡全力的鼓勵各位高雄板友去連署
,這邊就不贅述了。
我們就來談談第三階段吧! 先看看成立的條件"第三階段:投票 (同意罷免票數多於不同
意罷免且超過選區25%得票率)-取自維基百科"
依高雄投票人口數2,281,338人來算,如果進到第三階段,代表至少要有570,335人連署罷
免(即投票人口數的25%),加上歷屆罷免的無效票率0.68%,保險起見至少要585849人聯署
投贊成罷免
附上連結: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E7%BD%B7%E5%85%8D%
E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6
58.6萬罷免票在高雄是什麼概念呢? 會很困難嗎? 我直接下結論:"如果明天就開始
第三階段,那韓國瑜很難被成功罷免"
口說無憑,看看歷史數據吧!
1. 依遠見雜誌在2019/5/30所做的六都首長滿意度調查統計,韓國瑜的施政滿意度為57.9
%,不滿意度則為26.6%
附上連結 https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=64419
2. 先假設"滿意的人&沒意見的人,不會去投罷免票",也就是說不滿意的26.6%人數裡,
至少要有94%的人願意參與罷免投票,才能達到25%的同
意罷免人數。
3. 盡管再怎樣關心政治,投票率也不可能94%,有些人要上班,有些公務人員要負責選務
工作,還有北漂南漂各處漂的,沒辦法及時參與
高雄縣市合併後,市長選舉的人民投票率:2014年 - 66.44%; 2018年- 72.63%
假設明天就投票罷免來估算投票人口:26.6%不滿意的人想投罷免票的人裡面,實際能參
與投票的72.63%人口去投票,所得"投同意罷免票"人口數約為"440,745",很不幸的,結
果會是"失敗"。
但,局勢還是會隨時間有所變化的,以上只是參考而已,假設不滿意率達到34.5%,隔天
就投票,那韓導還是很有機會成為台灣第一個被罷免的縣市長。
一個國家的人民願意花時間關心政治,人越多年齡層越年輕,那這個國家就會越強大(當
然要扣除一些帶風向的惡劣網軍)。
我抱怨花媽的考古文,那種萬年老梗不用再貼了,韓導做不好的我也是照樣噓,希望高雄
會更好,加油吧各位!
----本文警語----------------------------------
本篇推文禁止出現政治人物或與其有關之內容,
違者將向板主以高雄板規 6-1 或 6-5 檢舉。
----以上警語請自行決定是否刪除----------------
--(以下請勿刪除)------------------------------
高雄板非心情板、個板,無關高雄廣泛市民之文章請勿張貼。
例如:我家隔壁的母貓生了小貓、對面的阿婆一個人獨居之類的。
這裡是高雄板,請討論與多數高雄市民有直接關聯性的文章。
高雄點請參考板規1-2
修改文章標題請於文章列表按大寫T
修改文章內文請於文章列表按大寫E
同性質文章請以大E修改內文方式加註,請勿於板上重覆多發
--
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高雄
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