嘉市砲H真39%小贏涂醒哲30% - 嘉義
By Ethan
at 2014-10-27T07:15
at 2014-10-27T07:15
Table of Contents
@新聞一把罩 綠豆看四方@
來源出處:(請附上網址)
http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT4/9025169.shtml
本報最新嘉義市長選情調查發現,嘉義市六位市長參選人中,目前呈現藍綠對決局面,陳
以真以三成九支持度小幅領先涂醒哲的三成;四成二選民看好陳勝選機會較大,比率也高
於涂醒哲的二成三。
距離縣市長選舉還有一個月,這次角逐下屆嘉義市長寶座的有陳以真、涂醒哲、林詩涵、
陳泰山、陳秀麗及許文建等六人。調查發現,對於嘉義市長的選情發展,有五成七選民表
示關心,三成七不關心。
嘉義市是南台灣一片綠色執政中唯一插上藍旗的縣市,藍綠在此短兵相接,選情相當緊繃
。
調查發現,如果明天投票,代表國民黨參選的陳以真以三成九支持度暫居領先,民進黨涂
醒哲以三成的支持度緊追在後,兩人差距九個百分點;在藍綠兩大政黨夾殺下,其他四位
參選人參選空間有限,支持度都不超過百分之一,二成九尚在觀望中的選民,是決定這場
選戰結果的關鍵。
交叉分析發現,陳以真在女性選民中較占優勢,以三成九支持度領先涂醒哲十四個百分點
;男性選民中兩人旗鼓相當,三成八挺陳,三成五擁涂。
從年齡來看,陳以真在六十歲以下選民中獲得逾四成支持,支持度領先涂醒哲至少十個百
分點;六十歲以上選民中兩人不相上下,二成八支持陳,三成支持涂。
從教育程度來看,陳以真在高中職以上選民較占上風,以逾四成支持度領先涂十二到十四
個百分點;涂醒哲在國中以下選民較占優勢,以二成九支持度超前陳的二成一。
政黨傾向差異方面,陳以真獲得八成藍營支持者力挺,中立選民中,陳也略勝一籌,三成
二挺陳,二成二擁涂。相對來看,涂醒哲的政黨凝聚力則尚待提升,目前獲得六成六綠營
支持者青睞,二成一轉向挺陳。
地區差異方面,陳以真較獲西區選民青睞,以四成支持度領先涂醒哲的二成八;兩人在東
區差距較少,三成七挺陳,三成二挺涂。
從勝選機會來看,嘉市選民也多看好陳以真能夠勝出,占四成二,二成三覺得涂醒哲較有
勝算,看好其他四位參選人勝出者都低於百分之一,三成三無法判斷。
不過,陳以真的市長支持度及看好度雖然都領先涂醒哲,惟詢問參選人中誰最具有治理城
市的能力,調查發現,陳以真和涂醒哲兩人評價相當,二成六選民肯定陳以真較佳,二成
八稱許涂醒哲較好;選擇其他五位參選人的比率都不超過百分之一,四成二無意見。
這次調查於十月廿一日至廿四日晚間進行,成功訪問了一千零七十三位設籍嘉義市的成年
民眾,另有二百五十一人拒訪;在百分之九十五的信心水準下,抽樣誤差在正負三點零個
百分點以內。調查以嘉義市住宅電話為母體作尾數兩位隨機抽樣,並依據嘉義市成年民眾
之性別及年齡結構進行加權。
--
來源出處:(請附上網址)
http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT4/9025169.shtml
本報最新嘉義市長選情調查發現,嘉義市六位市長參選人中,目前呈現藍綠對決局面,陳
以真以三成九支持度小幅領先涂醒哲的三成;四成二選民看好陳勝選機會較大,比率也高
於涂醒哲的二成三。
距離縣市長選舉還有一個月,這次角逐下屆嘉義市長寶座的有陳以真、涂醒哲、林詩涵、
陳泰山、陳秀麗及許文建等六人。調查發現,對於嘉義市長的選情發展,有五成七選民表
示關心,三成七不關心。
嘉義市是南台灣一片綠色執政中唯一插上藍旗的縣市,藍綠在此短兵相接,選情相當緊繃
。
調查發現,如果明天投票,代表國民黨參選的陳以真以三成九支持度暫居領先,民進黨涂
醒哲以三成的支持度緊追在後,兩人差距九個百分點;在藍綠兩大政黨夾殺下,其他四位
參選人參選空間有限,支持度都不超過百分之一,二成九尚在觀望中的選民,是決定這場
選戰結果的關鍵。
交叉分析發現,陳以真在女性選民中較占優勢,以三成九支持度領先涂醒哲十四個百分點
;男性選民中兩人旗鼓相當,三成八挺陳,三成五擁涂。
從年齡來看,陳以真在六十歲以下選民中獲得逾四成支持,支持度領先涂醒哲至少十個百
分點;六十歲以上選民中兩人不相上下,二成八支持陳,三成支持涂。
從教育程度來看,陳以真在高中職以上選民較占上風,以逾四成支持度領先涂十二到十四
個百分點;涂醒哲在國中以下選民較占優勢,以二成九支持度超前陳的二成一。
政黨傾向差異方面,陳以真獲得八成藍營支持者力挺,中立選民中,陳也略勝一籌,三成
二挺陳,二成二擁涂。相對來看,涂醒哲的政黨凝聚力則尚待提升,目前獲得六成六綠營
支持者青睞,二成一轉向挺陳。
地區差異方面,陳以真較獲西區選民青睞,以四成支持度領先涂醒哲的二成八;兩人在東
區差距較少,三成七挺陳,三成二挺涂。
從勝選機會來看,嘉市選民也多看好陳以真能夠勝出,占四成二,二成三覺得涂醒哲較有
勝算,看好其他四位參選人勝出者都低於百分之一,三成三無法判斷。
不過,陳以真的市長支持度及看好度雖然都領先涂醒哲,惟詢問參選人中誰最具有治理城
市的能力,調查發現,陳以真和涂醒哲兩人評價相當,二成六選民肯定陳以真較佳,二成
八稱許涂醒哲較好;選擇其他五位參選人的比率都不超過百分之一,四成二無意見。
這次調查於十月廿一日至廿四日晚間進行,成功訪問了一千零七十三位設籍嘉義市的成年
民眾,另有二百五十一人拒訪;在百分之九十五的信心水準下,抽樣誤差在正負三點零個
百分點以內。調查以嘉義市住宅電話為母體作尾數兩位隨機抽樣,並依據嘉義市成年民眾
之性別及年齡結構進行加權。
--
Tags:
嘉義
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