despite ... even - 英檢

原文網址：
http://www.economist.com/node/18070190

Despite the undoubted difficulties in the short run, even a messy democracy
could eventually be a rich prize—and not just for Egyptians.

上面這句話實在看不太懂...希望有高手可以幫我翻譯...謝謝!!

原文：
FROM fear of autocracy through euphoria to fear of chaos: over the past ten
days, Egypt has been through an intense emotional arc. The protests that
started with a few thousand people on January 25th escalated to a thrilling
climax on February 1st, when hundreds of thousands assembled in Cairo’s
Tahrir Square to demand the removal of Hosni Mubarak, and then deteriorated
into violence as the president’s supporters attacked demonstrators.

But despite the ugly scenes mid-week, the developments in Egypt should be
welcomed. A downtrodden region is getting a taste of freedom. In the space of
a few miraculous weeks, one Middle Eastern autocrat has fallen, and another,
who has kept the Arabs’ mightiest country under his thumb for 30 years, is
tottering. The 350m-strong Arab world is abuzz with expectation; its ageing
autocrats are suddenly looking shaky. These inspiring events recall the
universal truth that no people can be held in bondage for ever.

For some in the West, which has tended to put stability above democracy in
its dealings with the Middle East, these developments are disturbing. Now
that the protests have sucked the life out of Mr Mubarak’s regime, they
argue, the vacuum will be filled not by democrats but by chaos and strife or
by the Muslim Brothers, the anti-Western, anti-Israeli opposition. They
conclude that America should redouble its efforts to secure a lengthy “
managed transition” by shoring up either Mr Mubarak or someone like him.

The Rosetta revolution

That would be wrong. The popular rejection of Mr Mubarak offers the Middle
East’s best chance for reform in decades. If the West cannot back Egypt’s
people in their quest to determine their own destiny, then its arguments for
democracy and human rights elsewhere in the world stand for nothing. Change
brings risks—how could it not after so long?—but fewer than the grim
stagnation that is the alternative.

Revolutions do not have to be like those in France in 1789, Russia in 1917 or
Iran in 1979. The protests sweeping the Middle East have more in common with
the popular colour revolutions that changed the world map in the late 20th
century: peaceful (until the government’s thugs turned up), popular (no
Robespierre or Trotsky running things behind the scenes), and secular (Islam
has hardly reared its head). Driven by the power of its citizens, Egypt’s
upheaval could lead to a transformation as benign as those in eastern Europe.

Pessimists point out that Egypt has neither the institutions nor the
political leadership to ensure a smooth transition. But if it did, the people
would not have taken to the streets. No perfectly formed democracy is about
to emerge from the detritus of Mr Mubarak’s regime. Disorder seems likely to
reign for some time. But Egypt, though poor, has a sophisticated elite, a
well-educated middle class and strong sense of national pride. These are good
grounds for believing that Egyptians can pull order out of this chaos.

Fear of the Muslim Brotherhood is anyway overdone. It is true that the
Brothers produced Ayman al-Zawahiri, now Osama bin Laden’s number two and
chief ideologue; the writings of Sayyid Qutb, the Brothers’ leading thinker
in the 1950s and 1960s, are certainly intolerant and hostile to the West. Any
new Egyptian government, especially if it included the Brothers, would
probably be harder on Israel and easier on Hamas, the Islamist offshoot that
runs the Gaza Strip between Egypt and Israel, the very existence of which it
in theory rejects.

Yet the Brothers are a varied bunch, and more flexible than they were. Though
some argue for rescinding Egypt’s peace treaty of 1979 with Israel, they
probably would not risk another war. Nor would they obviously win elections.
They are respected for their piety, discipline and resilience, but estimates
of their popularity hover around 20% and have been falling. If they did
better than that, perhaps even winning power at the ballot box, some fear
they might never let go. But Islamists participate in elections in countries
such as Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia where democracy has taken hold.

If democracy is to flourish in Egypt, the Brothers must be allowed to compete
for power; and the lesson of the past few weeks is that the alternative to
democracy is a dead end. For several years now, unable to renew its
institutions or find jobs for its youth, Egypt has been becoming more
repressive. To leave 85m people to live under dictatorship—burdened by a
corrupt and brutal police force, the suppression of the opposition, and the
torture of political prisoners—would not just be morally wrong; it would
also light the fuse for the next uprising. Some would wish to install a new
strongman and wait for him to create the conditions for a secular democracy.
But autocrats rarely plan for their own removal, as the sad state of the
Middle East shows.

Barack and Mubarak

Despite the undoubted difficulties in the short run, even a messy democracy
could eventually be a rich prize—and not just for Egyptians. A democratic
Egypt could once again be a beacon to the region. It could help answer the
conundrum of how to incorporate Islam in Arab democracies. And, though Israel
is understandably fearful of the threats on its borders, an Egyptian
government that speaks for the people might one day contribute more to a
settlement with the Palestinians than an authoritarian’s “cold peace” ever
could.

The West can help win this prize. Its pursuit of stability above democracy
has damaged its image, but it can make amends now. America in particular
still has influence with Egypt’s political, business and military elite. If
it uses that, it could help speed the transition from autocracy through chaos
to a new order and improve its standing in the region.

Egypt’s upheaval may make Westerners nervous, but when Egyptians demand
freedom and self-determination, they are affirming values that the West lives
by. There is no guarantee that Egypt’s revolution will turn out for the
best. The only certainty is that autocracy leads to upheaval, and the best
guarantor of stability is democracy.

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