高雄市長選情緊繃 陳其邁僅領先韓國瑜1.6% - 高雄
By Hedy
at 2018-06-27T12:01
at 2018-06-27T12:01
Table of Contents
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20180627/1199740.htm
年底高雄市長選舉,民進黨提名黨內初選勝出的不分區立委陳其邁參選,而國民黨則是由高雄市黨部主委韓國瑜角逐。根據《ETtoday新聞雲》民調中心最新調查,目前陳其邁的支持度32.0%,領先韓國瑜的30.4%僅1.6%,兩人可說是打成平手,選情相當緊繃,最終選舉結果究竟誰勝誰負仍在未定之天。
《ETtoday新聞雲》於2018年5月4日至6月19日進行「高屏縣市長選情大調查」。調查結果針對設籍於高雄市民眾進行分析發現,有32.0%支持民進黨陳其邁,而30.4%支持國民黨韓國瑜,兩人差距僅1.6%,另8.8%表示都不支持,24.7%則未表態,因此合計約三成四的高雄市民將可能成為未來左右選戰結果的關鍵,後續選情變化仍有待觀察。
進一步與高雄市民的基本資料交叉分析發現,陳其邁在女性、20~39歲及桃源區、那瑪夏區、甲仙區、六龜區、杉林區、內門區、旗山區、美濃區、茂林區、鼓山區、鹽埕區、旗津區、三民區等族群均獲得明顯較高的支持度;反觀韓國瑜則在50~59歲及永安區、岡山區、燕巢區、彌陀區、梓官區、橋頭區、前金區、新興區、苓雅區等族群獲得相對較高的支持度。
另一方面,從政黨傾向來看,在政黨傾向中立者的支持度,陳其邁、韓國瑜兩人差距不大(15.5%:22.0%);然而仍有合計近六成的中立者為都不支持或未表態,因此這群中間選民的動向將成為未來決定誰勝誰負的關鍵。
本次民調由《ETtoday新聞雲》民調中心,負責問卷設計、調查執行、資料處理、統計分析及報告撰寫。調查期間於2018年5月4日至6月19日進行調查,調查方法是結合「網路調查」及「電腦輔助電話調查」進行,以高屏地區年滿20歲以上民眾為調查範圍及對象,網路調查是針對50歲及以下,電話調查是針對51歲及以上;調查回收有效樣本數為3,273份,抽樣誤差在95%信心水準下,為正負1.7%。進行統計分析之前,原始資料先依內政部最新人口統計資料(107年5月底)進行性別、年齡、地區、政黨樣本加權,以符合高雄市20歲以上人口之母體結構,使本調查具有代表性。
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