這次台南有選舉的卦嗎? - 台南
By Regina
at 2020-01-13T10:35
at 2020-01-13T10:35
Table of Contents
原文吃光!!
到了選舉之時,就又會有西瓜論出現在台南版(到底是有多愛西瓜啦!!)
就像雞只要遇到選舉年就得出來奉獻自己一樣!?
有人說DPP不強.只是台南綠到出汁流膿.在台南.只要是綠的就會上!?
當真嗎?那藍色議員怎麼還是不少存活的呢?
台南人有一定年紀的都會知道.在綠執政台南前藍的可以掌權台南好一段時間
(這句好像廢話.在那時不是藍就是綠)
那麼為什麼在施治明之後.台南就像是中邪了.投給綠營一去不返似的
但又真的是如此嗎?
先來看看縣市合併前的最後一次投票好了!
2005年 台南縣 投票率 66.01%
國民黨 郭添財 250887
民進黨 蘇煥智 267583
台南市 投票率 59.43%
國民黨 陳榮盛 134248
民進黨 許添財 148006
合併計算 國民黨 385135 民進黨 415589
再來是合併後
2010年 台南 投票率 71.91%
國民黨 郭添財 406196
民進黨 賴清德 619897
2014年 台南 投票率 67.15%
國民黨 黃秀霜 264536
民進黨 賴清德 711577
2018年 台南 投票率 65.40%
國民黨 高思博 312874
民進黨 黃偉哲 367518
林義豐 84153
許忠信 45168
陳永和 117179
蘇煥智 39778
幾年觀察下來 國民黨的票數從26萬到40.5萬都有.民進黨則是36.5萬到71萬左右
這代表了國民黨的基本盤是穩定的(15萬票左右的落差.但黃那次很不準)
而民進黨的選民則是會視情況投票(35萬票左右的落差).
以2018來看.游移票數就佔了28.6萬票.那為什麼這些票不會進到國民黨?
這是國民黨自己要去思考的.但同時也是一個對民進黨的警訊
有可能是市長沒做好做滿就離開.也可能是施政不如預期等等.導致民進黨選票出走
如果在民進黨最壞的狀況下.國民黨若願意投入人才來深耕還是能翻盤的.
只是你國民黨願意這樣子嗎?年輕人斷層過大.一個失敗就離開.沒有一個人肯蹲下來實幹
還敢笑說台南綠到出汁?
另外再談談偉哲好了.雖然肯定度上昇.但別忘了.基本上過去一年是收割比較多
接下來的今明兩年才是真正檢視這市長的能力如何.我想不少人跟我有一樣的想法吧
再一個另外.本人就是有游移的成份.我倒沒有全投綠的.
最基層的里長.議員藍的我有投過.
但你市長國民黨的人選.麻煩推個有競爭力的.要不乾脆點2022之前找個人蹲點深耕
放棄2022.讓民進黨自己撕殺.2026再推出來競爭.只是這樣子等於要守著6年
你國民黨有人願意嗎?
--
到了選舉之時,就又會有西瓜論出現在台南版(到底是有多愛西瓜啦!!)
就像雞只要遇到選舉年就得出來奉獻自己一樣!?
有人說DPP不強.只是台南綠到出汁流膿.在台南.只要是綠的就會上!?
當真嗎?那藍色議員怎麼還是不少存活的呢?
台南人有一定年紀的都會知道.在綠執政台南前藍的可以掌權台南好一段時間
(這句好像廢話.在那時不是藍就是綠)
那麼為什麼在施治明之後.台南就像是中邪了.投給綠營一去不返似的
但又真的是如此嗎?
先來看看縣市合併前的最後一次投票好了!
2005年 台南縣 投票率 66.01%
國民黨 郭添財 250887
民進黨 蘇煥智 267583
台南市 投票率 59.43%
國民黨 陳榮盛 134248
民進黨 許添財 148006
合併計算 國民黨 385135 民進黨 415589
再來是合併後
2010年 台南 投票率 71.91%
國民黨 郭添財 406196
民進黨 賴清德 619897
2014年 台南 投票率 67.15%
國民黨 黃秀霜 264536
民進黨 賴清德 711577
2018年 台南 投票率 65.40%
國民黨 高思博 312874
民進黨 黃偉哲 367518
林義豐 84153
許忠信 45168
陳永和 117179
蘇煥智 39778
幾年觀察下來 國民黨的票數從26萬到40.5萬都有.民進黨則是36.5萬到71萬左右
這代表了國民黨的基本盤是穩定的(15萬票左右的落差.但黃那次很不準)
而民進黨的選民則是會視情況投票(35萬票左右的落差).
以2018來看.游移票數就佔了28.6萬票.那為什麼這些票不會進到國民黨?
這是國民黨自己要去思考的.但同時也是一個對民進黨的警訊
有可能是市長沒做好做滿就離開.也可能是施政不如預期等等.導致民進黨選票出走
如果在民進黨最壞的狀況下.國民黨若願意投入人才來深耕還是能翻盤的.
只是你國民黨願意這樣子嗎?年輕人斷層過大.一個失敗就離開.沒有一個人肯蹲下來實幹
還敢笑說台南綠到出汁?
另外再談談偉哲好了.雖然肯定度上昇.但別忘了.基本上過去一年是收割比較多
接下來的今明兩年才是真正檢視這市長的能力如何.我想不少人跟我有一樣的想法吧
再一個另外.本人就是有游移的成份.我倒沒有全投綠的.
最基層的里長.議員藍的我有投過.
但你市長國民黨的人選.麻煩推個有競爭力的.要不乾脆點2022之前找個人蹲點深耕
放棄2022.讓民進黨自己撕殺.2026再推出來競爭.只是這樣子等於要守著6年
你國民黨有人願意嗎?
--
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台南
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