罷韓民調高 尹立:實際投票率恐偏低 - 高雄
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By Bennie
at 2020-05-26T23:48
at 2020-05-26T23:48
Table of Contents
第一血條: 0.00% 28,560/ 22,814 v
韓國瑜 第二血條: 0.00% 377,662/228,134 v
最終血條:██████████ 100.00% TBD/575,100 中選會版本
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020一月各黨的政黨票(左)
104,100 *A + 678,564 *B +123,820 *C +149,000 *K ≧ 575,100
(610,000韓國瑜2020總統@高雄)
B=90% ~100% 鑽石成就 ↑ 比估算略少三萬五
B=80% ~ 90% 白金成就 高機率成功
B=70% ~ 80% 金牌成就 |
------------------------------ |
B=60% ~ 70% 銀牌成就 |
B=50% ~ 60% 銅牌成就 高機率失敗
B<50% 魯蛇成就 ↓
P.1
各機構民調
參與投票且
日期 機構 樣本數 參與投票% 投同意票% 贊成% 反對% 其他%
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
1/16 ETtoday新聞 1,768 N/A N/A 63.4 42.2 3.4
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
2/07 TVBS 1,213 44.0 34.8 53.0 32.0 16.0
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
3/20 新國策智庫 1,087 51.2 39.5 59.5 34.5 6.0
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
4/20 時代力量 *,805 43.7 33.2 52.1 35.2 12.7
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/05 寶島通訊 1,090 47.5 36.0 55.1 32.0 12.9
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/08 蘋果新聞 1,082 50.2 37.3 65.0 20.4 14.6
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/19 台灣基進 1,072 34.5 31.9 54.4 26.5 19.0
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/20 TVBS 1,237 39.0 34.3 45.0 N/A N/A
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼──── P.2
5/23 蘋果新聞 1,079 39.0 36.0 50.1 22.0 27.9
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/24. 寶島通訊 1,080 45.5 41.9 57.3 30.0 12.7
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
參與同意票中位數---36.0%,請高雄的大家對自己有信心點
請罷韓軍團帶著愉快的心情、66送韓國瑜滾回斗六
PS :壓線最後一發
--
https://i.imgur.com/jTkboQT.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/dL7S05i.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/IyFu3eJ.jpg
--
韓國瑜 第二血條: 0.00% 377,662/228,134 v
最終血條:██████████ 100.00% TBD/575,100 中選會版本
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020一月各黨的政黨票(左)
104,100 *A + 678,564 *B +123,820 *C +149,000 *K ≧ 575,100
(610,000韓國瑜2020總統@高雄)
B=90% ~100% 鑽石成就 ↑ 比估算略少三萬五
B=80% ~ 90% 白金成就 高機率成功
B=70% ~ 80% 金牌成就 |
------------------------------ |
B=60% ~ 70% 銀牌成就 |
B=50% ~ 60% 銅牌成就 高機率失敗
B<50% 魯蛇成就 ↓
P.1
各機構民調
參與投票且
日期 機構 樣本數 參與投票% 投同意票% 贊成% 反對% 其他%
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
1/16 ETtoday新聞 1,768 N/A N/A 63.4 42.2 3.4
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
2/07 TVBS 1,213 44.0 34.8 53.0 32.0 16.0
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
3/20 新國策智庫 1,087 51.2 39.5 59.5 34.5 6.0
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
4/20 時代力量 *,805 43.7 33.2 52.1 35.2 12.7
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/05 寶島通訊 1,090 47.5 36.0 55.1 32.0 12.9
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/08 蘋果新聞 1,082 50.2 37.3 65.0 20.4 14.6
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/19 台灣基進 1,072 34.5 31.9 54.4 26.5 19.0
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/20 TVBS 1,237 39.0 34.3 45.0 N/A N/A
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼──── P.2
5/23 蘋果新聞 1,079 39.0 36.0 50.1 22.0 27.9
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
5/24. 寶島通訊 1,080 45.5 41.9 57.3 30.0 12.7
──┼─────┼───┼────┼─────┼───┼───┼────
參與同意票中位數---36.0%,請高雄的大家對自己有信心點
請罷韓軍團帶著愉快的心情、66送韓國瑜滾回斗六
PS :壓線最後一發
--
https://i.imgur.com/jTkboQT.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/dL7S05i.jpg
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https://i.imgur.com/IyFu3eJ.jpg
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--
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at 2020-08-14T17:20
at 2020-08-14T17:20
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at 2020-08-17T08:04
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at 2020-08-19T22:49
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