(發P幣)3分鐘解讀前瞻軌道建設研究報告(6) - 高雄
By Belly
at 2017-07-03T11:31
at 2017-07-03T11:31
Table of Contents
※ [本文轉錄自 Gossiping 看板 #1PMNglKQ ]
本文轉發前已取得原作者同意。
作者: vcbxnzm (㊣﹋) 看板: Gossiping
標題: [爆卦](發P幣)3分鐘解讀前瞻軌道建設研究報告(6)
時間: Mon Jul 3 06:58:50 2017
3分鐘解讀前瞻軌道建設研究報告(6) 第一次挖捷運就上手
(A) 賣場大搬家
(B) -4 帶你抓人潮
(C) 散戶不讀財報, 被坑殺活該
這篇偏硬, 不期待有多少比例鄉民願意看完. 所以為了增加人氣, 來發 P 幣吧! 小弟
在 PTT 上次開賭盤時, 第一次下注就梭哈釘孤支, 賭川普勝選. 以下是財力證明:
【郵件選單】 批踢踢實業坊 看板《HatePolitics》
[←]離開[↑↓]選擇[→]閱讀信件 [O]站外信:開 [h]求助 [~]資源回收筒
編號 日 期 作 者 信 件 標 題 (容量:2/200篇)
● 1 11/09 Ptt彩券 ◇ HatePolitics 中獎咧! $ 26976
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/HatePolitics/M.1478678454.A.0EA.html
此活動最多發出 2.2 萬個 P 幣, 53 個名額. 最大獎稅前 10000 個 P 幣; 重複推文
最多次也可獲得稅前 1000 個 P 幣的慰勞獎. <謎之聲> 暗! 我自己也想玩 </謎之聲>
得獎名單會在本篇的回覆公佈. 推文請複製貼上以下文字:
前瞻軌道總預算 9558.63 億! 拒絕爛貨給我好料
純抽獎的鄉民, 請按 ← 鍵或 X 鍵, 頂多注意文末抽獎規則. 下方本文沒有興趣, 腦
袋也沒那麼靈光的話, 可以不用選擇被數學摧殘.
媒體朋友們, 請在八卦板搜尋小弟 ID 或本篇標題 "3分鐘解讀", 裡頭應該可以找出好
幾個你們想要的題材. 像是區間車拉皮實在好好笑, 或者北宜直鐵根本虛晃一招. 要刊
登或節錄前, 版權沒有但請先打個招呼謝謝.
以下為本文, 第一次挖捷運就上手:
============================================================================
(A) 賣場大搬家
先看一則國際新聞
< 賣場推「100秒隨你搬」 他先扛重電視...最後賺了90萬 >
http://www.ettoday.net/news/20160128/639095.htm
http://youtu.be/_7S-f4WIewI
捷運該怎麼挖, 其實影片已經說完了. 簡單吧! <謎之聲> 蛤? 哩供蝦? </謎之聲>
多數人都有逛過百貨公司的經驗. 百貨公司就是很典型的分層架構: 越接近大門入口,
櫃位的坪效越高; 越往樓上走, 租金越低人潮越少營業額越降. 為什麼百貨公司要這樣
開呢? 因為按照營收能力順序排列的話, 創造的利潤最大; 反過來把利潤最高的化妝品
擺在頂樓, 湯姆熊放一樓入口, 就賺不了那麼多錢了嘛.
價值越高的越早拿, 越低排越後面, 這樣就可以跟賣場百秒大搬家一樣, 輕鬆掃走 94
萬. 萬一專攻衛生紙, 大包小包, 100 秒恐怕連 1000 元的價值都拿不到.
這就是捷運系統. 因為每單位的營運成本很貴, 所以只能依序拿走最有價值的那幾塊,
其他含金量不足的部分都只能全部放棄, 不然虧定了.
捷運系統不是為了賺錢, 但更不是為了賠錢, 所以要在收支打平前提下, 照顧最多人.
---------------------------------------
一座城市, 哪邊的公眾運輸需求量最高? 簡單的說法是 蛋黃區 > 蛋白區 > 蛋殼區
( 商業區 > 住商混合區 > 純住宅區 ), 密度越高的地方, 越需要健全的公眾運輸系
統. 有個地圖網站很好用, 點選社經地圖 -> 白天人口, 就能看到人數分佈的熱點圖.
http://www.map.com.tw
但因為熱點圖只給查詢一小塊, 所以要自己用繪圖軟體剪貼, 才能把整張圖拼出來:
北北基
http://i.imgur.com/864YWL0.gif
桃園
http://i.imgur.com/esc33mY.gif
新竹
http://i.imgur.com/dB6V4Rp.gif
台中
http://i.imgur.com/K36OXoK.gif
台南
http://i.imgur.com/8B8vlTi.gif
高雄
http://i.imgur.com/D2bWlOs.gif
挖捷運的原則是, 以蛋黃區核心為原點, 往四面八方擴散; 延伸得越遠, 越有機會遇到
破碎帶, 蛋殼與部分蛋白, 都是保證虧錢的地雷區.
前一段提到的百貨公司, 經營者的準則是每一層都要賺錢, 頂多忍受該層收支打平; 萬
一虧錢, 還不如把該樓層給收起來, 至少還能省一點電費. 假設有 1 ~ 100 樓, 商品
以長尾理論方式一路往樓上陳列, 到 17 樓就收支打平的話, 18 樓以上當然全收, 甚
至 17 樓也要看情況. 像徐胖這種大老闆又不是開慈善事業, 誰跟你客氣?
都市就像躺下來的百貨公司大樓, 以一樓為圓心掃一圈, 像打開扇子那樣, 或者也可以
說是像射飛鏢的靶狀. 捷運系統這家百貨公司該開到幾樓呢? 假設 1F 賺 16 元, 2F
賺 15 元, 每多一層少 1 元, 一直到 17F 賺 0 元, 徐胖百貨公司開到 16F 就會停,
後面不賺錢不幹. 但捷運公司會繼續往 17F 開下去, 一直開到虧 16 元的 33 樓, 這
樣一來整棟百貨公司收入等於支出, 整個就是冤大頭做白工的概念.
徐胖百貨總共開了 16 層樓, 口袋滿滿; 可是那個兩年省 500 億的瘋子市長, 瘋子百
貨大手筆開了 33 層樓, 多開了 17 層, 顯然照顧到的消費者人數, 是能力範圍內最多
的. 但 34 樓以上? 抱歉喔, 已經泥菩薩過江, 長尾理論只能斷尾求生, 口袋沒錢了.
就算帶立委帶總統來吵, 同樣頭抓一抓不要理你:我想是這樣啦齁, 啊不然你 87 樓自
己出虧損差額, 我們就來設定跳過 34 ~ 86 樓的直達電梯, 從 33 樓直通 87 樓.
看看高雄那張熱點圖, 路竹是不是長得一臉 87 樓, 而花媽百貨更連直達電梯也不要,
手扶梯從 33 樓一路運轉到 87 樓都沒在怕的. 再這樣玩下去, 要不乾脆環島捷運全都
給花媽百貨卯下來就好了嘛.
台灣又不像香港沒有蛋殼, 地鐵隨便亂挖都能賺錢; 一個生活圈裡面, 各區塊的人口密
度有高有低; 想挖捷運, 方法要非常講究才行.
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http://i.imgur.com/Wape1nh.gif
百貨公司的利潤, 跟經營樓層數的關係, 把概念畫成圖大概類似拋物線. 徐胖百貨追求
利潤最大化的 A 點, 瘋子百貨做功德但求 B 點; 各地方政府大量的捷運提案, C 點最
後藏在哪裡根本都沒人知道, 管他的咧先要到錢, 挖下去再說.
前面的拋物線圖還算是好的, 萬一城市人口密度不足, 拋物線的一樓起點低於 0, 最佳
點 A 萬一也低於 0, 那不就死定了嘛! 小弟高度懷疑花媽百貨正陷入這種困境而不自
知, 放手追求腦補的綜效, 卻不知道就連頂點 A 仍舊是個賠錢貨. 結果因為以為會賺
錢, 所以眼睛一閉, 努力衝樓層數, 一下就跨過賠最少的 A 點, 啟動通往地獄的列車,
虧損深不見底.
http://i.imgur.com/qgTeNUT.gif
就像幾天前的工安意外, 明明本來只有一個昏迷, 結果為了救人, 在缺乏專業裝備的情
況下, 第二個第三個第四個全都跟著進去陪葬
< 燿華電子廠5人掉落化學池 4死1傷 >
http://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201706265007-1.aspx
花媽百貨就像百戰小旅鼠, 一個一個往前衝, 青瞑毋驚槍!
想當年笨Q吃下的西門子手機部門, 不只免費還附嫁妝, 結果吃完拉肚子住院, 公司大
減資. 現在的前瞻捷運遍地開花, 就像西門子手機部門, 中央政府免費大方送. 但各地
方政府能不能吃下來, 算盤可真要好好打個精準. 一個不小心, 保證各地方政府財政送
病院吊大筒, 全部苗栗化.
< 話題人物 - 李焜耀認錯 明基一場350億元的購併教訓 - 今周刊 >
https://goo.gl/6gNRPB
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http://i.imgur.com/Y0JHnuQ.gif
江湖一點訣, 說穿了好簡單, 核心不過就是上面這張圖罷了. 可那些在職位上的專業人
士, 真奇怪從不把這張圖放在心上, 老把優先順序亂洗一通, 以為自己有創意好棒棒.
<中捷綠線延伸到大坑、藍線到南投 中市續爭取>
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/2037422
把捷運當台鐵來搞, 聽起來好像很聰明. 可問題是兩者發車的班距不同站距不同, 導致
平均車速也不同. 南投也要比照蛋黃區, 尖峰三分鐘發一班嗎? 既然都到門口了, 捷運
要不要順便延伸竹山鹿谷呢? 高捷紅線掉進去的陷阱, 殷鑒不遠.
橋頭到新左營, 台鐵 9 分鐘高捷 15 分鐘. 但因為當地需求量不足, 所以台鐵班次少.
捷運如果要用發車密度優勢, 彌補車速慢的弱點, 那不就擺明了蚊子列車. 現在紅線想
延伸到湖內, 下次換橘線延伸到屏東, 最後整個系統蓋成 100 層的百貨大樓: 1 ~ 16
樓可以賺最多, 1 ~ 33 樓收支打平; 結果現在大手筆規劃 1 ~ 100 樓, 但賺錢的
6 ~ 15 樓拉下鐵門還沒時間設櫃, 卻老把心思花在 78 ~ 87 樓.
大搬家競賽明明分秒必爭, 放著 iPhone 不管, 沒事去亂搬衛生紙幹嘛啦? 市區的 6 到
15 樓都還沒營業, 滿腦子就已經在想著 87 樓的事情. 市長你賣牛奶喔?
< 伊索寓言 擠牛奶的姑娘 >
https://goo.gl/nd1CN5
============================================================================
(B) -4 帶你抓人潮
網路上流傳一個笑話段子:
> 聯合利華公司引進了一條香皂包裝生產線,結果發現這條生產線有個缺陷:常常會有
> 盒子沒裝入香皂。總不能把空盒子賣給顧客啊,他們只得請了一個學自動化的博士後
> 設計一個方案來分揀空的香皂盒。博士後拉起了一個十幾人的科研攻關小組,綜合採
> 用了機械、微電子、自動化、 X 光探測等技術,花了幾十萬,成功解決了問題。
>
> 每當生產線上有空香皂盒通過,兩旁的探測器會檢測到,並且驅動一隻機械手把空皂
> 盒推走。
>
> 中國南方有個鄉鎮企業也買了同樣的一條香皂包裝生產線,老闆發現這個問題後大為
> 發火,找了個小工來說:「你他媽給老子把這個搞定,不然你給老子爬 ~ 。」小工
> 很快想出了辦法:他在生產線旁邊放了台風扇猛吹,空皂盒自然會被吹走。
---------------------------------------
抓人潮就這麼回事. 職業人士用的東西聽說叫做 TRTS 運輸需求預測模式, 超精密超豪
華揀選系統已經發展了四代. 可問題在於, 這明明是個拿工業電扇就能搞定的事情.
統一超商剛開始的時候跟美國的南方公司取經, 直接套用美國人那一套技術, 失敗. 南
方公司找據點的方法是去路口數車流量, 因為美國人都開車. -4 後來改算人數, 現在
不曉得技術進步到什麼程度. 不過這都不是重點.
業界最厲害的一招叫做複數店:
http://www.family.com.tw/enterprise/franchise/experience_4.aspx
原理是在該地區據點, 是要擴充還是要縮編, 以營收為準, 鈔票的力量決定一切. 如果
某單店營收太低, 收; 反之一塊區域的各店營收如果都偏高, 就會在附近找個好位置新
開一家複數店. 因為自己不開, 競爭對手也會開, 還不如囚徒困境先搶先贏.
靠著營收報表調整展店數量, 練了 10 年下來, 超商分佈就會收斂到最佳狀態, 一家店
大約代表 2300 人上下. 統計範圍越大, 在該地活動的人口數字就估計得越精準.
戶籍人數與實際活動人口有落差, 是因為要出外求學求職. 什麼時候才遷戶口? 答案是
買房子或生小孩, 因為自用住宅稅率低, 小孩戶籍所在會決定學區. 正因為戶籍人口嚴
重落後現實居住狀況十年以上, 所以超商推算出來的人口數可視為領先指標.
尷尬的事情要來了. 台灣本島哪些地方人口流失比例最嚴重? 哪個地方流失人數最多?
看了統計報表不要嚇一跳:
http://i.imgur.com/T5v9CLJ.gif
雲林彰化人口流失 36%, 屏東嘉義 33%, 幸福城市流失人數 61.1 萬人! 怕了吧. 好膽
捷運線就閉著眼睛挖下去沒有關係. 等 10 年後完工落成, 戶籍人口先修正到目前推算
的超商人口, 到那時候的超商數說不定還繼續往下跳.
---------------------------------------
利用超商抓人潮會準, 是因為不斷地動態修正, 10 年磨一劍. 反正輕資產可以隨便搬,
trial & error 無妨, 花錢買經驗就是了; 甚至黑心業者會派加盟主去 trial &
error, 需要複數店的時候反而直營店優先.
但捷運系統重資產, 路線設下去少說要用個 100 年才會夠本, 失敗不得. 想跟超商一
樣買失敗經驗, 是在跟納稅人開玩笑嗎?
先看兩則新聞
< 新莊副都心.淡海新市鎮 空屋率高 - 公共電視台 新聞網 >
http://news.pts.org.tw/article/361038
> 淡海新市鎮二期也鬧空城,時代力量擔心新莊的塭仔圳市地重劃案,也會問題重演
< 北捷虧 靠收租年賺12億 | 蘋果日報 >
http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20170628/37697816
> 中央和北市府為北捷投入的興建成本逾1兆元
如果一套軌道系統要用 100 年, 真有必要為了搶快幾年急著先到位嗎? 都市計畫一開
始, 先把場站路廊空間預留成公園, 超商數量過門檻之後再挖不行嗎?
預測地區發展, 並依據研究結果提早投入挖捷運, 是一件沒有道理的事情. 挖捷運不需
要預測, 跟著超商屁股走就好了, 就好比肯德基常常跟著麥當勞無腦展店. 去預期一個
地方會發展, 總會有個命中率, 小於 100%. 當總投資金額很大的時候, 蚊子建設的規
模就會很嚇人. 考 90 分好棒棒對不對? 真抱歉拿這種成績去挖台北捷運, 要浪費整整
1000 億元. 就連倚賴 TRTS 還是會出現失誤, 不然那個新莊是怎麼回事?
唯一可以比人潮早一步到位的特例, 恐怕只有像遷都台中這種實質大利多, 才能本錢粗
到可以閉著眼睛挖下去不出錯. 其他時候, 想透過捷運帶動地方發展, 只怕會複製出一
個個高鐵特定區, 一勝二和六敗.
機場捷運, 大概只考了 30 分. 沒關係現在已經有屏潮在陪你, 後頭還有三環三線與路
竹延伸來報到, 機捷你不寂寞.
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取得超商分佈數據之後, 接下來要判斷該地區是蛋黃蛋白或者是蛋殼. 蛋黃區的捷運使
用型態, 除了上下班通勤以外, 上班時間還會有外地人到當地辦事情的商業活動; 相對
蛋殼區的型態很簡單, 上課上班時間, 車站進城方向一堆人, 9:00 以後就變冷清了,
等到下班下課, 出城方向旅客陸陸續續出現, 直到夜間 22:00 左右才人潮漸稀; 蛋白
區則是介於兩者之間的型態.
這就是為什麼要先挖蛋黃區與蛋白區, 蛋殼區晚點再說的原因. 捷運百貨公司低樓層賺
錢, 說不定到中樓層就打平玩不下去. 萬一中樓層的票箱收入還有一些餘裕, 才能試圖
往高樓層挺進. 舉台中藍線為例, 蛋黃區是榮總到火車站, 蛋白區是大里龍井沙鹿, 霧
峰梧棲很明顯是蛋殼. 蛋黃必挖, 蛋白只挑狀況好的挖; 如果蛋黃加蛋白竟然不小心還
有賺錢, 才可能繼續往下階段的蛋殼挺進.
全台各地最熱鬧的兩條街, 不是中山就是中正. 高捷橘線就連在城區的中正路, 都是賠
錢的蛋白 (如信義國小), 靠腰這是要怎麼玩下去?
---------------------------------------
對超商分佈特性有了基本認識之後, 接下來只是操作的教學而已. 捷運的覆蓋範圍, 大
約 500 公尺. PC 版 PAPAGO 電子地圖非常好用, 可以查詢半徑 500 公尺內的超商數
量, 一下就能看出某個地點適不適合設站. 下面這張圖是西門町的狀況, 相當優秀.
http://i.imgur.com/SiMhxlV.gif
接著把所有站點的超商數量一一清點出來, 就能完成像這樣的表格
http://i.imgur.com/2JehLpo.gif
只要算一下一條路線的超商平均家數, 再判斷一下是蛋殼還蛋黃, 這條線會賺會賠大概
就心裡有數.
重點是如果想吵架, 指責地方捷運局處路線亂來的話, 只要能畫出超商平均數更好的路
線, 比稿一下就知道地方捷運局處到底有沒有實力.
這部分等寫到台中高雄的時候再來示範.
============================================================================
(C) 散戶不讀財報, 被坑殺活該
捷運究竟該延伸到什麼長度, 其實就跟超商靠營收增減據點一樣道理, 來讀財報吧.
< 臺北大眾捷運股份有限公司 ─ 預決算資料 >
http://www.metro.taipei/ct.asp?xItem=8415222&CtNode=70075&mp=122035
< 高雄捷運 關於我們 公司簡介 年報資料 >
https://www.krtco.com.tw/about_us/about_us-7.aspx
< 桃園捷運 > 關於桃捷 > 出版品與文宣品 >
https://www.tymetro.com.tw/cht/index.php?code=list&ids=19
---------------------------------------
北捷看這頁就好
http://i.imgur.com/piDrMhP.gif
事實上本業的票箱收入, 足以支撐本業的運輸成本, 像是水電維運折舊這些. 口袋深度
大約剩下 17 億可以挖延伸線, 還有些本錢, 但也談不上多; 百貨公司往樓上開要非常
小心, 跨太大步保證虧.
但最後的盈餘只有 7 億, 表示業外收入無力支付其餘支出, 中間短差了 10 億. 這個
故事告訴我們, 就算本業賺錢, 挖延伸線的本錢實際也要打折, 對折起跳.
至於新聞報導還說什麼 "去年運輸本業虧3億元,但靠業外收入盈餘12.5億元". 本系列
分析看下來還不懂嗎? 數字故意美化或醜化, 當然是為了表達立場, 他說他不在. 那個
兩年省 500 億的瘋子市長, 自然對前瞻亂花錢看得很不爽, 抓最難看的幾個會計科目
湊了個數字, 要告訴大家軌道是錢坑.
前瞻確實有些地方亂花錢, 軌道也確實是很恐怖的重度資本投資, 但北捷賠錢的說法也
有小小化妝一下. 不過喊空背後的動機, 就如同第一篇的前言所說
政治家選擇犧牲下次選舉成全下一代, 政客卻犧牲下一代成就下次選舉.
同志们朋友们, 女士们先生们, 我们怀念他! (請帶捲舌兒音)
---------------------------------------
高捷號稱賺錢, 好吧那就來仔細瞧瞧財爆可以長成什麼樣
< 2014-02-06 去年帳面首見盈餘? 高捷:實虧虛盈 >
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/local/paper/752017
http://i.imgur.com/FWZVDzX.gif
101 年票箱收入 13 億, 營收規模約北捷的一成, 運輸成本 29 億. 102 年收入 14 億
成本 21 億, 生意變好成本下降真是有趣啊. 仔細一看, 原來是賣祖產拼現金, 因為本
來說好了是 BOT, 所以機電資產都要折舊; 賣給市府拼現金回來以後, 就沒東西可以折
舊了, 成本下降. 現金還拿來成立一個叫做平準基金的小金庫, 用途不明.
於是號稱 104 年賺錢了耶好棒棒唷. 票箱收入明明卡在 14 億不動, 成本連兩年維持
在 17 億. 咦? 14-17 = -3 還是賠錢啊!
http://i.imgur.com/f991G6M.gif
挖勒原來在變魔術, 平準基金真好用.
---------------------------------------
桃捷? 最新的年報只到 2014 年, 什麼也看不到.
---------------------------------------
小弟在市場打滾, 平常就看很多像這樣亂七八糟的年報與新聞, 自然練就一些抗雜訊能
力. 不敢自稱能力多好, 但總算是有一點基本辨識能力.
所以前瞻計畫的研究報告, 能被本系列文章點出來的, 當然都嘛超搞笑. 四十幾本大部
頭搬出來, 我好怕唷 ╮(╯_╰)╭
< 前瞻計畫未經審慎規劃?交通部搬出這40多本書反駁 >
http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/life/20170513/1118081
敬告各地市府與捷運局處, 別躲在中央政府裙子底下話唬爛, 有本事就去接受資本市場
的公開檢驗, 各地捷運公司股票一律 IPO, 少在那邊欺騙百姓. 日本的高速公路, 首都
高都能上市民營化, 台灣的中華電信甚至還發了 ADR. 不是說好了賺錢好棒棒的嘛, 就
到市場見真章啊, 順便回收政府投入的資金.
笑你們不敢
============================================================================
下期預告:
D8機場捷運增設A14站
<---------------------以下活動規則, 密密麻麻可以不要看--------------------->
活動在發文 30 小時後截止, 假設發文時間戳記是 Jul 2 07:03:28 2017, 那麼最後一
推的時間戳記為 7/3 13:02. 每 20 推發一個普獎, 共 50 個名額. 但推文超過 1100
個時有加碼, 1001 推一直到發文滿 30 小時前最後一推, 取倒數第 100 推為特獎, 最
後一推頭獎.
假設總共 1357 個推, 給獎順序如下:
(1) 最多推者可得慰勞獎 (扣除噓文次數), 稅前 1000 個 P 幣, 有可能多人均分.
(2) 普獎第 20, 40, 60, ......, 1000 推, 稅前各得 200 個 P 幣, 50 人
(3) 頭獎第 1357 推, 獨得稅前 1000 個 P 幣
(4) 特獎第 1357 - 99 = 1258 個推, 獨得稅前 10000 個 P 幣
同一帳號又噓又推, 取消中獎資格 (慰勞獎除外); 因為用 excel 排序推文, 推文字串
不全等於 "前瞻軌道總預算 9558.63 億! 拒絕爛貨給我好料" 就視同無效. 可以用同
一個帳號重複推, 但只有第一次中獎有效, 中第二次以上的都不算. (中了慰勞獎就失
去 (2) (3) (4) 的中獎資格, 中普獎就不能再拿特獎頭獎, 中過頭獎就不能再拿特獎)
遊戲規則的意思是, 即使已經 100 推爆, 也才發掉 5 個, 後頭還有 45 個普獎, 有誠
意吧; 就算機器人照三餐推都沒關係, 抽獎活動並不禁止 DDoS, 但只能中一次. 萬一
普獎/特獎/頭獎 被取消 (先中其他獎/又噓又推)? 吃過尾牙就知道, 主管得獎當然捐
出來! 所以已經中過獎的話, 特獎頭獎捐出來! 但因為整個系列文章還沒寫完, 如果到
最後小弟帳戶餘額夠的話 (也可站內信談 donate), 結語篇還能再辦一次.
<---------------------以上活動規則, 密密麻麻可以不要看--------------------->
--
本文轉發前已取得原作者同意。
作者: vcbxnzm (㊣﹋) 看板: Gossiping
標題: [爆卦](發P幣)3分鐘解讀前瞻軌道建設研究報告(6)
時間: Mon Jul 3 06:58:50 2017
3分鐘解讀前瞻軌道建設研究報告(6) 第一次挖捷運就上手
(A) 賣場大搬家
(B) -4 帶你抓人潮
(C) 散戶不讀財報, 被坑殺活該
這篇偏硬, 不期待有多少比例鄉民願意看完. 所以為了增加人氣, 來發 P 幣吧! 小弟
在 PTT 上次開賭盤時, 第一次下注就梭哈釘孤支, 賭川普勝選. 以下是財力證明:
【郵件選單】 批踢踢實業坊 看板《HatePolitics》
[←]離開[↑↓]選擇[→]閱讀信件 [O]站外信:開 [h]求助 [~]資源回收筒
編號 日 期 作 者 信 件 標 題 (容量:2/200篇)
● 1 11/09 Ptt彩券 ◇ HatePolitics 中獎咧! $ 26976
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/HatePolitics/M.1478678454.A.0EA.html
此活動最多發出 2.2 萬個 P 幣, 53 個名額. 最大獎稅前 10000 個 P 幣; 重複推文
最多次也可獲得稅前 1000 個 P 幣的慰勞獎. <謎之聲> 暗! 我自己也想玩 </謎之聲>
得獎名單會在本篇的回覆公佈. 推文請複製貼上以下文字:
前瞻軌道總預算 9558.63 億! 拒絕爛貨給我好料
純抽獎的鄉民, 請按 ← 鍵或 X 鍵, 頂多注意文末抽獎規則. 下方本文沒有興趣, 腦
袋也沒那麼靈光的話, 可以不用選擇被數學摧殘.
媒體朋友們, 請在八卦板搜尋小弟 ID 或本篇標題 "3分鐘解讀", 裡頭應該可以找出好
幾個你們想要的題材. 像是區間車拉皮實在好好笑, 或者北宜直鐵根本虛晃一招. 要刊
登或節錄前, 版權沒有但請先打個招呼謝謝.
以下為本文, 第一次挖捷運就上手:
============================================================================
(A) 賣場大搬家
先看一則國際新聞
< 賣場推「100秒隨你搬」 他先扛重電視...最後賺了90萬 >
http://www.ettoday.net/news/20160128/639095.htm
http://youtu.be/_7S-f4WIewI
捷運該怎麼挖, 其實影片已經說完了. 簡單吧! <謎之聲> 蛤? 哩供蝦? </謎之聲>
多數人都有逛過百貨公司的經驗. 百貨公司就是很典型的分層架構: 越接近大門入口,
櫃位的坪效越高; 越往樓上走, 租金越低人潮越少營業額越降. 為什麼百貨公司要這樣
開呢? 因為按照營收能力順序排列的話, 創造的利潤最大; 反過來把利潤最高的化妝品
擺在頂樓, 湯姆熊放一樓入口, 就賺不了那麼多錢了嘛.
價值越高的越早拿, 越低排越後面, 這樣就可以跟賣場百秒大搬家一樣, 輕鬆掃走 94
萬. 萬一專攻衛生紙, 大包小包, 100 秒恐怕連 1000 元的價值都拿不到.
這就是捷運系統. 因為每單位的營運成本很貴, 所以只能依序拿走最有價值的那幾塊,
其他含金量不足的部分都只能全部放棄, 不然虧定了.
捷運系統不是為了賺錢, 但更不是為了賠錢, 所以要在收支打平前提下, 照顧最多人.
---------------------------------------
一座城市, 哪邊的公眾運輸需求量最高? 簡單的說法是 蛋黃區 > 蛋白區 > 蛋殼區
( 商業區 > 住商混合區 > 純住宅區 ), 密度越高的地方, 越需要健全的公眾運輸系
統. 有個地圖網站很好用, 點選社經地圖 -> 白天人口, 就能看到人數分佈的熱點圖.
http://www.map.com.tw
但因為熱點圖只給查詢一小塊, 所以要自己用繪圖軟體剪貼, 才能把整張圖拼出來:
北北基
http://i.imgur.com/864YWL0.gif
桃園
http://i.imgur.com/esc33mY.gif
新竹
http://i.imgur.com/dB6V4Rp.gif
台中
http://i.imgur.com/K36OXoK.gif
台南
http://i.imgur.com/8B8vlTi.gif
高雄
http://i.imgur.com/D2bWlOs.gif
挖捷運的原則是, 以蛋黃區核心為原點, 往四面八方擴散; 延伸得越遠, 越有機會遇到
破碎帶, 蛋殼與部分蛋白, 都是保證虧錢的地雷區.
前一段提到的百貨公司, 經營者的準則是每一層都要賺錢, 頂多忍受該層收支打平; 萬
一虧錢, 還不如把該樓層給收起來, 至少還能省一點電費. 假設有 1 ~ 100 樓, 商品
以長尾理論方式一路往樓上陳列, 到 17 樓就收支打平的話, 18 樓以上當然全收, 甚
至 17 樓也要看情況. 像徐胖這種大老闆又不是開慈善事業, 誰跟你客氣?
都市就像躺下來的百貨公司大樓, 以一樓為圓心掃一圈, 像打開扇子那樣, 或者也可以
說是像射飛鏢的靶狀. 捷運系統這家百貨公司該開到幾樓呢? 假設 1F 賺 16 元, 2F
賺 15 元, 每多一層少 1 元, 一直到 17F 賺 0 元, 徐胖百貨公司開到 16F 就會停,
後面不賺錢不幹. 但捷運公司會繼續往 17F 開下去, 一直開到虧 16 元的 33 樓, 這
樣一來整棟百貨公司收入等於支出, 整個就是冤大頭做白工的概念.
徐胖百貨總共開了 16 層樓, 口袋滿滿; 可是那個兩年省 500 億的瘋子市長, 瘋子百
貨大手筆開了 33 層樓, 多開了 17 層, 顯然照顧到的消費者人數, 是能力範圍內最多
的. 但 34 樓以上? 抱歉喔, 已經泥菩薩過江, 長尾理論只能斷尾求生, 口袋沒錢了.
就算帶立委帶總統來吵, 同樣頭抓一抓不要理你:我想是這樣啦齁, 啊不然你 87 樓自
己出虧損差額, 我們就來設定跳過 34 ~ 86 樓的直達電梯, 從 33 樓直通 87 樓.
看看高雄那張熱點圖, 路竹是不是長得一臉 87 樓, 而花媽百貨更連直達電梯也不要,
手扶梯從 33 樓一路運轉到 87 樓都沒在怕的. 再這樣玩下去, 要不乾脆環島捷運全都
給花媽百貨卯下來就好了嘛.
台灣又不像香港沒有蛋殼, 地鐵隨便亂挖都能賺錢; 一個生活圈裡面, 各區塊的人口密
度有高有低; 想挖捷運, 方法要非常講究才行.
---------------------------------------
http://i.imgur.com/Wape1nh.gif
百貨公司的利潤, 跟經營樓層數的關係, 把概念畫成圖大概類似拋物線. 徐胖百貨追求
利潤最大化的 A 點, 瘋子百貨做功德但求 B 點; 各地方政府大量的捷運提案, C 點最
後藏在哪裡根本都沒人知道, 管他的咧先要到錢, 挖下去再說.
前面的拋物線圖還算是好的, 萬一城市人口密度不足, 拋物線的一樓起點低於 0, 最佳
點 A 萬一也低於 0, 那不就死定了嘛! 小弟高度懷疑花媽百貨正陷入這種困境而不自
知, 放手追求腦補的綜效, 卻不知道就連頂點 A 仍舊是個賠錢貨. 結果因為以為會賺
錢, 所以眼睛一閉, 努力衝樓層數, 一下就跨過賠最少的 A 點, 啟動通往地獄的列車,
虧損深不見底.
http://i.imgur.com/qgTeNUT.gif
就像幾天前的工安意外, 明明本來只有一個昏迷, 結果為了救人, 在缺乏專業裝備的情
況下, 第二個第三個第四個全都跟著進去陪葬
< 燿華電子廠5人掉落化學池 4死1傷 >
http://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201706265007-1.aspx
花媽百貨就像百戰小旅鼠, 一個一個往前衝, 青瞑毋驚槍!
想當年笨Q吃下的西門子手機部門, 不只免費還附嫁妝, 結果吃完拉肚子住院, 公司大
減資. 現在的前瞻捷運遍地開花, 就像西門子手機部門, 中央政府免費大方送. 但各地
方政府能不能吃下來, 算盤可真要好好打個精準. 一個不小心, 保證各地方政府財政送
病院吊大筒, 全部苗栗化.
< 話題人物 - 李焜耀認錯 明基一場350億元的購併教訓 - 今周刊 >
https://goo.gl/6gNRPB
---------------------------------------
http://i.imgur.com/Y0JHnuQ.gif
江湖一點訣, 說穿了好簡單, 核心不過就是上面這張圖罷了. 可那些在職位上的專業人
士, 真奇怪從不把這張圖放在心上, 老把優先順序亂洗一通, 以為自己有創意好棒棒.
<中捷綠線延伸到大坑、藍線到南投 中市續爭取>
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/2037422
把捷運當台鐵來搞, 聽起來好像很聰明. 可問題是兩者發車的班距不同站距不同, 導致
平均車速也不同. 南投也要比照蛋黃區, 尖峰三分鐘發一班嗎? 既然都到門口了, 捷運
要不要順便延伸竹山鹿谷呢? 高捷紅線掉進去的陷阱, 殷鑒不遠.
橋頭到新左營, 台鐵 9 分鐘高捷 15 分鐘. 但因為當地需求量不足, 所以台鐵班次少.
捷運如果要用發車密度優勢, 彌補車速慢的弱點, 那不就擺明了蚊子列車. 現在紅線想
延伸到湖內, 下次換橘線延伸到屏東, 最後整個系統蓋成 100 層的百貨大樓: 1 ~ 16
樓可以賺最多, 1 ~ 33 樓收支打平; 結果現在大手筆規劃 1 ~ 100 樓, 但賺錢的
6 ~ 15 樓拉下鐵門還沒時間設櫃, 卻老把心思花在 78 ~ 87 樓.
大搬家競賽明明分秒必爭, 放著 iPhone 不管, 沒事去亂搬衛生紙幹嘛啦? 市區的 6 到
15 樓都還沒營業, 滿腦子就已經在想著 87 樓的事情. 市長你賣牛奶喔?
< 伊索寓言 擠牛奶的姑娘 >
https://goo.gl/nd1CN5
============================================================================
(B) -4 帶你抓人潮
網路上流傳一個笑話段子:
> 聯合利華公司引進了一條香皂包裝生產線,結果發現這條生產線有個缺陷:常常會有
> 盒子沒裝入香皂。總不能把空盒子賣給顧客啊,他們只得請了一個學自動化的博士後
> 設計一個方案來分揀空的香皂盒。博士後拉起了一個十幾人的科研攻關小組,綜合採
> 用了機械、微電子、自動化、 X 光探測等技術,花了幾十萬,成功解決了問題。
>
> 每當生產線上有空香皂盒通過,兩旁的探測器會檢測到,並且驅動一隻機械手把空皂
> 盒推走。
>
> 中國南方有個鄉鎮企業也買了同樣的一條香皂包裝生產線,老闆發現這個問題後大為
> 發火,找了個小工來說:「你他媽給老子把這個搞定,不然你給老子爬 ~ 。」小工
> 很快想出了辦法:他在生產線旁邊放了台風扇猛吹,空皂盒自然會被吹走。
---------------------------------------
抓人潮就這麼回事. 職業人士用的東西聽說叫做 TRTS 運輸需求預測模式, 超精密超豪
華揀選系統已經發展了四代. 可問題在於, 這明明是個拿工業電扇就能搞定的事情.
統一超商剛開始的時候跟美國的南方公司取經, 直接套用美國人那一套技術, 失敗. 南
方公司找據點的方法是去路口數車流量, 因為美國人都開車. -4 後來改算人數, 現在
不曉得技術進步到什麼程度. 不過這都不是重點.
業界最厲害的一招叫做複數店:
http://www.family.com.tw/enterprise/franchise/experience_4.aspx
原理是在該地區據點, 是要擴充還是要縮編, 以營收為準, 鈔票的力量決定一切. 如果
某單店營收太低, 收; 反之一塊區域的各店營收如果都偏高, 就會在附近找個好位置新
開一家複數店. 因為自己不開, 競爭對手也會開, 還不如囚徒困境先搶先贏.
靠著營收報表調整展店數量, 練了 10 年下來, 超商分佈就會收斂到最佳狀態, 一家店
大約代表 2300 人上下. 統計範圍越大, 在該地活動的人口數字就估計得越精準.
戶籍人數與實際活動人口有落差, 是因為要出外求學求職. 什麼時候才遷戶口? 答案是
買房子或生小孩, 因為自用住宅稅率低, 小孩戶籍所在會決定學區. 正因為戶籍人口嚴
重落後現實居住狀況十年以上, 所以超商推算出來的人口數可視為領先指標.
尷尬的事情要來了. 台灣本島哪些地方人口流失比例最嚴重? 哪個地方流失人數最多?
看了統計報表不要嚇一跳:
http://i.imgur.com/T5v9CLJ.gif
雲林彰化人口流失 36%, 屏東嘉義 33%, 幸福城市流失人數 61.1 萬人! 怕了吧. 好膽
捷運線就閉著眼睛挖下去沒有關係. 等 10 年後完工落成, 戶籍人口先修正到目前推算
的超商人口, 到那時候的超商數說不定還繼續往下跳.
---------------------------------------
利用超商抓人潮會準, 是因為不斷地動態修正, 10 年磨一劍. 反正輕資產可以隨便搬,
trial & error 無妨, 花錢買經驗就是了; 甚至黑心業者會派加盟主去 trial &
error, 需要複數店的時候反而直營店優先.
但捷運系統重資產, 路線設下去少說要用個 100 年才會夠本, 失敗不得. 想跟超商一
樣買失敗經驗, 是在跟納稅人開玩笑嗎?
先看兩則新聞
< 新莊副都心.淡海新市鎮 空屋率高 - 公共電視台 新聞網 >
http://news.pts.org.tw/article/361038
> 淡海新市鎮二期也鬧空城,時代力量擔心新莊的塭仔圳市地重劃案,也會問題重演
< 北捷虧 靠收租年賺12億 | 蘋果日報 >
http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20170628/37697816
> 中央和北市府為北捷投入的興建成本逾1兆元
如果一套軌道系統要用 100 年, 真有必要為了搶快幾年急著先到位嗎? 都市計畫一開
始, 先把場站路廊空間預留成公園, 超商數量過門檻之後再挖不行嗎?
預測地區發展, 並依據研究結果提早投入挖捷運, 是一件沒有道理的事情. 挖捷運不需
要預測, 跟著超商屁股走就好了, 就好比肯德基常常跟著麥當勞無腦展店. 去預期一個
地方會發展, 總會有個命中率, 小於 100%. 當總投資金額很大的時候, 蚊子建設的規
模就會很嚇人. 考 90 分好棒棒對不對? 真抱歉拿這種成績去挖台北捷運, 要浪費整整
1000 億元. 就連倚賴 TRTS 還是會出現失誤, 不然那個新莊是怎麼回事?
唯一可以比人潮早一步到位的特例, 恐怕只有像遷都台中這種實質大利多, 才能本錢粗
到可以閉著眼睛挖下去不出錯. 其他時候, 想透過捷運帶動地方發展, 只怕會複製出一
個個高鐵特定區, 一勝二和六敗.
機場捷運, 大概只考了 30 分. 沒關係現在已經有屏潮在陪你, 後頭還有三環三線與路
竹延伸來報到, 機捷你不寂寞.
---------------------------------------
取得超商分佈數據之後, 接下來要判斷該地區是蛋黃蛋白或者是蛋殼. 蛋黃區的捷運使
用型態, 除了上下班通勤以外, 上班時間還會有外地人到當地辦事情的商業活動; 相對
蛋殼區的型態很簡單, 上課上班時間, 車站進城方向一堆人, 9:00 以後就變冷清了,
等到下班下課, 出城方向旅客陸陸續續出現, 直到夜間 22:00 左右才人潮漸稀; 蛋白
區則是介於兩者之間的型態.
這就是為什麼要先挖蛋黃區與蛋白區, 蛋殼區晚點再說的原因. 捷運百貨公司低樓層賺
錢, 說不定到中樓層就打平玩不下去. 萬一中樓層的票箱收入還有一些餘裕, 才能試圖
往高樓層挺進. 舉台中藍線為例, 蛋黃區是榮總到火車站, 蛋白區是大里龍井沙鹿, 霧
峰梧棲很明顯是蛋殼. 蛋黃必挖, 蛋白只挑狀況好的挖; 如果蛋黃加蛋白竟然不小心還
有賺錢, 才可能繼續往下階段的蛋殼挺進.
全台各地最熱鬧的兩條街, 不是中山就是中正. 高捷橘線就連在城區的中正路, 都是賠
錢的蛋白 (如信義國小), 靠腰這是要怎麼玩下去?
---------------------------------------
對超商分佈特性有了基本認識之後, 接下來只是操作的教學而已. 捷運的覆蓋範圍, 大
約 500 公尺. PC 版 PAPAGO 電子地圖非常好用, 可以查詢半徑 500 公尺內的超商數
量, 一下就能看出某個地點適不適合設站. 下面這張圖是西門町的狀況, 相當優秀.
http://i.imgur.com/SiMhxlV.gif
接著把所有站點的超商數量一一清點出來, 就能完成像這樣的表格
http://i.imgur.com/2JehLpo.gif
只要算一下一條路線的超商平均家數, 再判斷一下是蛋殼還蛋黃, 這條線會賺會賠大概
就心裡有數.
重點是如果想吵架, 指責地方捷運局處路線亂來的話, 只要能畫出超商平均數更好的路
線, 比稿一下就知道地方捷運局處到底有沒有實力.
這部分等寫到台中高雄的時候再來示範.
============================================================================
(C) 散戶不讀財報, 被坑殺活該
捷運究竟該延伸到什麼長度, 其實就跟超商靠營收增減據點一樣道理, 來讀財報吧.
< 臺北大眾捷運股份有限公司 ─ 預決算資料 >
http://www.metro.taipei/ct.asp?xItem=8415222&CtNode=70075&mp=122035
< 高雄捷運 關於我們 公司簡介 年報資料 >
https://www.krtco.com.tw/about_us/about_us-7.aspx
< 桃園捷運 > 關於桃捷 > 出版品與文宣品 >
https://www.tymetro.com.tw/cht/index.php?code=list&ids=19
---------------------------------------
北捷看這頁就好
http://i.imgur.com/piDrMhP.gif
事實上本業的票箱收入, 足以支撐本業的運輸成本, 像是水電維運折舊這些. 口袋深度
大約剩下 17 億可以挖延伸線, 還有些本錢, 但也談不上多; 百貨公司往樓上開要非常
小心, 跨太大步保證虧.
但最後的盈餘只有 7 億, 表示業外收入無力支付其餘支出, 中間短差了 10 億. 這個
故事告訴我們, 就算本業賺錢, 挖延伸線的本錢實際也要打折, 對折起跳.
至於新聞報導還說什麼 "去年運輸本業虧3億元,但靠業外收入盈餘12.5億元". 本系列
分析看下來還不懂嗎? 數字故意美化或醜化, 當然是為了表達立場, 他說他不在. 那個
兩年省 500 億的瘋子市長, 自然對前瞻亂花錢看得很不爽, 抓最難看的幾個會計科目
湊了個數字, 要告訴大家軌道是錢坑.
前瞻確實有些地方亂花錢, 軌道也確實是很恐怖的重度資本投資, 但北捷賠錢的說法也
有小小化妝一下. 不過喊空背後的動機, 就如同第一篇的前言所說
政治家選擇犧牲下次選舉成全下一代, 政客卻犧牲下一代成就下次選舉.
同志们朋友们, 女士们先生们, 我们怀念他! (請帶捲舌兒音)
---------------------------------------
高捷號稱賺錢, 好吧那就來仔細瞧瞧財爆可以長成什麼樣
< 2014-02-06 去年帳面首見盈餘? 高捷:實虧虛盈 >
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/local/paper/752017
http://i.imgur.com/FWZVDzX.gif
101 年票箱收入 13 億, 營收規模約北捷的一成, 運輸成本 29 億. 102 年收入 14 億
成本 21 億, 生意變好成本下降真是有趣啊. 仔細一看, 原來是賣祖產拼現金, 因為本
來說好了是 BOT, 所以機電資產都要折舊; 賣給市府拼現金回來以後, 就沒東西可以折
舊了, 成本下降. 現金還拿來成立一個叫做平準基金的小金庫, 用途不明.
於是號稱 104 年賺錢了耶好棒棒唷. 票箱收入明明卡在 14 億不動, 成本連兩年維持
在 17 億. 咦? 14-17 = -3 還是賠錢啊!
http://i.imgur.com/f991G6M.gif
挖勒原來在變魔術, 平準基金真好用.
---------------------------------------
桃捷? 最新的年報只到 2014 年, 什麼也看不到.
---------------------------------------
小弟在市場打滾, 平常就看很多像這樣亂七八糟的年報與新聞, 自然練就一些抗雜訊能
力. 不敢自稱能力多好, 但總算是有一點基本辨識能力.
所以前瞻計畫的研究報告, 能被本系列文章點出來的, 當然都嘛超搞笑. 四十幾本大部
頭搬出來, 我好怕唷 ╮(╯_╰)╭
< 前瞻計畫未經審慎規劃?交通部搬出這40多本書反駁 >
http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/life/20170513/1118081
敬告各地市府與捷運局處, 別躲在中央政府裙子底下話唬爛, 有本事就去接受資本市場
的公開檢驗, 各地捷運公司股票一律 IPO, 少在那邊欺騙百姓. 日本的高速公路, 首都
高都能上市民營化, 台灣的中華電信甚至還發了 ADR. 不是說好了賺錢好棒棒的嘛, 就
到市場見真章啊, 順便回收政府投入的資金.
笑你們不敢
============================================================================
下期預告:
D8機場捷運增設A14站
<---------------------以下活動規則, 密密麻麻可以不要看--------------------->
活動在發文 30 小時後截止, 假設發文時間戳記是 Jul 2 07:03:28 2017, 那麼最後一
推的時間戳記為 7/3 13:02. 每 20 推發一個普獎, 共 50 個名額. 但推文超過 1100
個時有加碼, 1001 推一直到發文滿 30 小時前最後一推, 取倒數第 100 推為特獎, 最
後一推頭獎.
假設總共 1357 個推, 給獎順序如下:
(1) 最多推者可得慰勞獎 (扣除噓文次數), 稅前 1000 個 P 幣, 有可能多人均分.
(2) 普獎第 20, 40, 60, ......, 1000 推, 稅前各得 200 個 P 幣, 50 人
(3) 頭獎第 1357 推, 獨得稅前 1000 個 P 幣
(4) 特獎第 1357 - 99 = 1258 個推, 獨得稅前 10000 個 P 幣
同一帳號又噓又推, 取消中獎資格 (慰勞獎除外); 因為用 excel 排序推文, 推文字串
不全等於 "前瞻軌道總預算 9558.63 億! 拒絕爛貨給我好料" 就視同無效. 可以用同
一個帳號重複推, 但只有第一次中獎有效, 中第二次以上的都不算. (中了慰勞獎就失
去 (2) (3) (4) 的中獎資格, 中普獎就不能再拿特獎頭獎, 中過頭獎就不能再拿特獎)
遊戲規則的意思是, 即使已經 100 推爆, 也才發掉 5 個, 後頭還有 45 個普獎, 有誠
意吧; 就算機器人照三餐推都沒關係, 抽獎活動並不禁止 DDoS, 但只能中一次. 萬一
普獎/特獎/頭獎 被取消 (先中其他獎/又噓又推)? 吃過尾牙就知道, 主管得獎當然捐
出來! 所以已經中過獎的話, 特獎頭獎捐出來! 但因為整個系列文章還沒寫完, 如果到
最後小弟帳戶餘額夠的話 (也可站內信談 donate), 結語篇還能再辦一次.
<---------------------以上活動規則, 密密麻麻可以不要看--------------------->
--
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By Rosalind
at 2017-08-29T20:13
at 2017-08-29T20:13
By Quintina
at 2017-09-02T05:12
at 2017-09-02T05:12
By Frederic
at 2017-09-05T14:11
at 2017-09-05T14:11
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2017-09-08T23:10
at 2017-09-08T23:10
By Cara
at 2017-09-12T08:09
at 2017-09-12T08:09
By Robert
at 2017-09-15T17:07
at 2017-09-15T17:07
By Rachel
at 2017-09-19T02:06
at 2017-09-19T02:06
By Thomas
at 2017-09-22T11:05
at 2017-09-22T11:05
By Doris
at 2017-09-25T20:04
at 2017-09-25T20:04
By Kelly
at 2017-09-29T05:03
at 2017-09-29T05:03
By Robert
at 2017-10-02T14:02
at 2017-10-02T14:02
By Lydia
at 2017-10-05T23:01
at 2017-10-05T23:01
By Doris
at 2017-10-09T08:00
at 2017-10-09T08:00
By Charlie
at 2017-10-12T16:59
at 2017-10-12T16:59
By Callum
at 2017-10-16T01:58
at 2017-10-16T01:58
By Rae
at 2017-10-19T10:57
at 2017-10-19T10:57
By Ethan
at 2017-10-22T19:56
at 2017-10-22T19:56
By Jacob
at 2017-10-26T04:55
at 2017-10-26T04:55
By Mary
at 2017-10-29T13:54
at 2017-10-29T13:54
By Elizabeth
at 2017-11-01T22:53
at 2017-11-01T22:53
By Ingrid
at 2017-11-05T07:51
at 2017-11-05T07:51
By Ingrid
at 2017-11-08T16:50
at 2017-11-08T16:50
By Ingrid
at 2017-11-12T01:49
at 2017-11-12T01:49
By Zora
at 2017-11-15T10:48
at 2017-11-15T10:48
By Hedda
at 2017-11-18T19:47
at 2017-11-18T19:47
By Hazel
at 2017-11-22T04:46
at 2017-11-22T04:46
By Regina
at 2017-11-25T13:45
at 2017-11-25T13:45
By Noah
at 2017-11-28T22:44
at 2017-11-28T22:44
By Andy
at 2017-12-02T07:43
at 2017-12-02T07:43
By Bennie
at 2017-12-05T16:42
at 2017-12-05T16:42
By Tom
at 2017-12-09T01:41
at 2017-12-09T01:41
By Zanna
at 2017-12-12T10:40
at 2017-12-12T10:40
By Joseph
at 2017-12-15T19:39
at 2017-12-15T19:39
By Aaliyah
at 2017-12-19T04:38
at 2017-12-19T04:38
By Catherine
at 2017-12-22T13:37
at 2017-12-22T13:37
By Ula
at 2017-12-25T22:35
at 2017-12-25T22:35
By Megan
at 2017-12-29T07:34
at 2017-12-29T07:34
By Puput
at 2018-01-01T16:33
at 2018-01-01T16:33
By Daph Bay
at 2018-01-05T01:32
at 2018-01-05T01:32
By Xanthe
at 2018-01-08T10:31
at 2018-01-08T10:31
By Eartha
at 2018-01-11T19:30
at 2018-01-11T19:30
By Leila
at 2018-01-15T04:29
at 2018-01-15T04:29
By David
at 2018-01-18T13:28
at 2018-01-18T13:28
By Delia
at 2018-01-21T22:27
at 2018-01-21T22:27
By Cara
at 2018-01-25T07:26
at 2018-01-25T07:26
By Sierra Rose
at 2018-01-28T16:25
at 2018-01-28T16:25
By Tristan Cohan
at 2018-02-01T01:24
at 2018-02-01T01:24
By Delia
at 2018-02-04T10:23
at 2018-02-04T10:23
By Wallis
at 2018-02-07T19:22
at 2018-02-07T19:22
By Frederica
at 2018-02-11T04:21
at 2018-02-11T04:21
By Sarah
at 2018-02-14T13:19
at 2018-02-14T13:19
By James
at 2018-02-17T22:18
at 2018-02-17T22:18
By John
at 2018-02-21T07:17
at 2018-02-21T07:17
By Rosalind
at 2018-02-24T16:16
at 2018-02-24T16:16
By Ingrid
at 2018-02-28T01:15
at 2018-02-28T01:15
By Kelly
at 2018-03-03T10:14
at 2018-03-03T10:14
By Mason
at 2018-03-06T19:13
at 2018-03-06T19:13
By Christine
at 2018-03-10T04:12
at 2018-03-10T04:12
By Edwina
at 2018-03-13T13:11
at 2018-03-13T13:11
By Carol
at 2018-03-16T22:10
at 2018-03-16T22:10
By Rosalind
at 2018-03-20T07:09
at 2018-03-20T07:09
By Ula
at 2018-03-23T16:08
at 2018-03-23T16:08
By Dinah
at 2018-03-27T01:07
at 2018-03-27T01:07
By Mia
at 2018-03-30T10:06
at 2018-03-30T10:06
By Isla
at 2018-04-02T19:05
at 2018-04-02T19:05
By Iris
at 2018-04-06T04:03
at 2018-04-06T04:03
By Candice
at 2018-04-09T13:02
at 2018-04-09T13:02
By Belly
at 2018-04-12T22:01
at 2018-04-12T22:01
By Xanthe
at 2018-04-16T07:00
at 2018-04-16T07:00
By Suhail Hany
at 2018-04-19T15:59
at 2018-04-19T15:59
By Mary
at 2018-04-23T00:58
at 2018-04-23T00:58
By Andrew
at 2018-04-26T09:57
at 2018-04-26T09:57
By Cara
at 2018-04-29T18:56
at 2018-04-29T18:56
By Andy
at 2018-05-03T03:55
at 2018-05-03T03:55
By Dora
at 2018-05-06T12:54
at 2018-05-06T12:54
By Andy
at 2018-05-09T21:53
at 2018-05-09T21:53
By Kama
at 2018-05-13T06:52
at 2018-05-13T06:52
By Michael
at 2018-05-16T15:51
at 2018-05-16T15:51
By Belly
at 2018-05-20T00:50
at 2018-05-20T00:50
By Daph Bay
at 2018-05-23T09:49
at 2018-05-23T09:49
By Doris
at 2018-05-26T18:47
at 2018-05-26T18:47
By Lauren
at 2018-05-30T03:46
at 2018-05-30T03:46
By Gilbert
at 2018-06-02T12:45
at 2018-06-02T12:45
By Rebecca
at 2018-06-05T21:44
at 2018-06-05T21:44
By Olive
at 2018-06-09T06:43
at 2018-06-09T06:43
By Enid
at 2018-06-12T15:42
at 2018-06-12T15:42
By Ophelia
at 2018-06-16T00:41
at 2018-06-16T00:41
By Ophelia
at 2018-06-19T09:40
at 2018-06-19T09:40
By Thomas
at 2018-06-22T18:39
at 2018-06-22T18:39
By Isla
at 2018-06-26T03:38
at 2018-06-26T03:38
By Hardy
at 2018-06-29T12:37
at 2018-06-29T12:37
By Barb Cronin
at 2018-07-02T21:36
at 2018-07-02T21:36
By Delia
at 2018-07-06T06:35
at 2018-07-06T06:35
By Candice
at 2018-07-09T15:34
at 2018-07-09T15:34
By Tracy
at 2018-07-13T00:33
at 2018-07-13T00:33
By Irma
at 2018-07-16T09:31
at 2018-07-16T09:31
By Eden
at 2018-07-19T18:30
at 2018-07-19T18:30
By Hedwig
at 2018-07-23T03:29
at 2018-07-23T03:29
By Frederica
at 2018-07-26T12:28
at 2018-07-26T12:28
By James
at 2018-07-29T21:27
at 2018-07-29T21:27
By Christine
at 2018-08-02T06:26
at 2018-08-02T06:26
By Agatha
at 2018-08-05T15:25
at 2018-08-05T15:25
By Carol
at 2018-08-09T00:24
at 2018-08-09T00:24
By Wallis
at 2018-08-12T09:23
at 2018-08-12T09:23
By Vanessa
at 2018-08-15T18:22
at 2018-08-15T18:22
By Audriana
at 2018-08-19T03:21
at 2018-08-19T03:21
By Una
at 2018-08-22T12:20
at 2018-08-22T12:20
By Carolina Franco
at 2018-08-25T21:19
at 2018-08-25T21:19
By Candice
at 2018-08-29T06:18
at 2018-08-29T06:18
By Edith
at 2018-09-01T15:17
at 2018-09-01T15:17
By Noah
at 2018-09-05T00:15
at 2018-09-05T00:15
By Rosalind
at 2018-09-08T09:14
at 2018-09-08T09:14
By Callum
at 2018-09-11T18:13
at 2018-09-11T18:13
By Emma
at 2018-09-15T03:12
at 2018-09-15T03:12
By Queena
at 2018-09-18T12:11
at 2018-09-18T12:11
By Joe
at 2018-09-21T21:10
at 2018-09-21T21:10
By Oliver
at 2018-09-25T06:09
at 2018-09-25T06:09
By Suhail Hany
at 2018-09-28T15:08
at 2018-09-28T15:08
By Freda
at 2018-10-02T00:07
at 2018-10-02T00:07
By Charlotte
at 2018-10-05T09:06
at 2018-10-05T09:06
By Cara
at 2018-10-08T18:05
at 2018-10-08T18:05
By Victoria
at 2018-10-12T03:04
at 2018-10-12T03:04
By Jacob
at 2018-10-15T12:03
at 2018-10-15T12:03
By Dinah
at 2018-10-18T21:02
at 2018-10-18T21:02
By Hedwig
at 2018-10-22T06:01
at 2018-10-22T06:01
By Eartha
at 2018-10-25T14:59
at 2018-10-25T14:59
By Adele
at 2018-10-28T23:58
at 2018-10-28T23:58
By Skylar Davis
at 2018-11-01T08:57
at 2018-11-01T08:57
By Christine
at 2018-11-04T17:56
at 2018-11-04T17:56
By Damian
at 2018-11-08T02:55
at 2018-11-08T02:55
By Kelly
at 2018-11-11T11:54
at 2018-11-11T11:54
By Andy
at 2018-11-14T20:53
at 2018-11-14T20:53
By George
at 2018-11-18T05:52
at 2018-11-18T05:52
By Enid
at 2018-11-21T14:51
at 2018-11-21T14:51
By Frederica
at 2018-11-24T23:50
at 2018-11-24T23:50
By Daph Bay
at 2018-11-28T08:49
at 2018-11-28T08:49
By Cara
at 2018-12-01T17:48
at 2018-12-01T17:48
By Frederica
at 2018-12-05T02:47
at 2018-12-05T02:47
By Dinah
at 2018-12-08T11:46
at 2018-12-08T11:46
By Valerie
at 2018-12-11T20:45
at 2018-12-11T20:45
By Puput
at 2018-12-15T05:43
at 2018-12-15T05:43
By Ursula
at 2018-12-18T14:42
at 2018-12-18T14:42
By Necoo
at 2018-12-21T23:41
at 2018-12-21T23:41
By Ula
at 2018-12-25T08:40
at 2018-12-25T08:40
By Mia
at 2018-12-28T17:39
at 2018-12-28T17:39
By Hedy
at 2019-01-01T02:38
at 2019-01-01T02:38
By Anthony
at 2019-01-04T11:37
at 2019-01-04T11:37
By Zora
at 2019-01-07T20:36
at 2019-01-07T20:36
By Erin
at 2019-01-11T05:35
at 2019-01-11T05:35
By Poppy
at 2019-01-14T14:34
at 2019-01-14T14:34
By Anonymous
at 2019-01-17T23:33
at 2019-01-17T23:33
By Enid
at 2019-01-21T08:32
at 2019-01-21T08:32
By Hamiltion
at 2019-01-24T17:31
at 2019-01-24T17:31
By Zora
at 2019-01-28T02:30
at 2019-01-28T02:30
By Kelly
at 2019-01-31T11:29
at 2019-01-31T11:29
By Quintina
at 2019-02-03T20:27
at 2019-02-03T20:27
By Agatha
at 2019-02-07T05:26
at 2019-02-07T05:26
By Hardy
at 2019-02-10T14:25
at 2019-02-10T14:25
By Charlie
at 2019-02-13T23:24
at 2019-02-13T23:24
By Frederica
at 2019-02-17T08:23
at 2019-02-17T08:23
By Edward Lewis
at 2019-02-20T17:22
at 2019-02-20T17:22
By Dorothy
at 2019-02-24T02:21
at 2019-02-24T02:21
By Olga
at 2019-02-27T11:20
at 2019-02-27T11:20
By Isla
at 2019-03-02T20:19
at 2019-03-02T20:19
By Daph Bay
at 2019-03-06T05:18
at 2019-03-06T05:18
By Rae
at 2019-03-09T14:17
at 2019-03-09T14:17
By Lily
at 2019-03-12T23:16
at 2019-03-12T23:16
By Edwina
at 2019-03-16T08:15
at 2019-03-16T08:15
By Callum
at 2019-03-19T17:14
at 2019-03-19T17:14
By Enid
at 2019-03-23T02:13
at 2019-03-23T02:13
By Selena
at 2019-03-26T11:11
at 2019-03-26T11:11
By Harry
at 2019-03-29T20:10
at 2019-03-29T20:10
By Connor
at 2019-04-02T05:09
at 2019-04-02T05:09
By Sierra Rose
at 2019-04-05T14:08
at 2019-04-05T14:08
By Hazel
at 2019-04-08T23:07
at 2019-04-08T23:07
By Sierra Rose
at 2019-04-12T08:06
at 2019-04-12T08:06
By Puput
at 2019-04-15T17:05
at 2019-04-15T17:05
By Zora
at 2019-04-19T02:04
at 2019-04-19T02:04
By Blanche
at 2019-04-22T11:03
at 2019-04-22T11:03
By Mary
at 2019-04-25T20:02
at 2019-04-25T20:02
By Edward Lewis
at 2019-04-29T05:01
at 2019-04-29T05:01
By Eartha
at 2019-05-02T14:00
at 2019-05-02T14:00
By Adele
at 2019-05-05T22:59
at 2019-05-05T22:59
By Skylar Davis
at 2019-05-09T07:58
at 2019-05-09T07:58
By Catherine
at 2019-05-12T16:57
at 2019-05-12T16:57
By Brianna
at 2019-05-16T01:55
at 2019-05-16T01:55
By Irma
at 2019-05-19T10:54
at 2019-05-19T10:54
By Genevieve
at 2019-05-22T19:53
at 2019-05-22T19:53
By David
at 2019-05-26T04:52
at 2019-05-26T04:52
By Margaret
at 2019-05-29T13:51
at 2019-05-29T13:51
By Frederic
at 2019-06-01T22:50
at 2019-06-01T22:50
By Quintina
at 2019-06-05T07:49
at 2019-06-05T07:49
By Anthony
at 2019-06-08T16:48
at 2019-06-08T16:48
By Todd Johnson
at 2019-06-12T01:47
at 2019-06-12T01:47
By Caitlin
at 2019-06-15T10:46
at 2019-06-15T10:46
By Oliver
at 2019-06-18T19:45
at 2019-06-18T19:45
By Dorothy
at 2019-06-22T04:44
at 2019-06-22T04:44
By Todd Johnson
at 2019-06-25T13:43
at 2019-06-25T13:43
By Una
at 2019-06-28T22:42
at 2019-06-28T22:42
By Hedy
at 2019-07-02T07:41
at 2019-07-02T07:41
By Lauren
at 2019-07-05T16:39
at 2019-07-05T16:39
By Dorothy
at 2019-07-09T01:38
at 2019-07-09T01:38
By Jacky
at 2019-07-12T10:37
at 2019-07-12T10:37
By Hamiltion
at 2019-07-15T19:36
at 2019-07-15T19:36
By Queena
at 2019-07-19T04:35
at 2019-07-19T04:35
By Olivia
at 2019-07-22T13:34
at 2019-07-22T13:34
By Wallis
at 2019-07-25T22:33
at 2019-07-25T22:33
By Lucy
at 2019-07-29T07:32
at 2019-07-29T07:32
By Agatha
at 2019-08-01T16:31
at 2019-08-01T16:31
By George
at 2019-08-05T01:30
at 2019-08-05T01:30
By Christine
at 2019-08-08T10:29
at 2019-08-08T10:29
By Lauren
at 2019-08-11T19:28
at 2019-08-11T19:28
By Edwina
at 2019-08-15T04:27
at 2019-08-15T04:27
By Charlie
at 2019-08-18T13:26
at 2019-08-18T13:26
By Una
at 2019-08-21T22:25
at 2019-08-21T22:25
By Annie
at 2019-08-25T07:23
at 2019-08-25T07:23
By Franklin
at 2019-08-28T16:22
at 2019-08-28T16:22
By Aaliyah
at 2019-09-01T01:21
at 2019-09-01T01:21
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2019-09-04T10:20
at 2019-09-04T10:20
By Margaret
at 2019-09-07T19:19
at 2019-09-07T19:19
By Aaliyah
at 2019-09-11T04:18
at 2019-09-11T04:18
By Harry
at 2019-09-14T13:17
at 2019-09-14T13:17
By Harry
at 2019-09-17T22:16
at 2019-09-17T22:16
By Hedy
at 2019-09-21T07:15
at 2019-09-21T07:15
By Hazel
at 2019-09-24T16:14
at 2019-09-24T16:14
By Susan
at 2019-09-28T01:13
at 2019-09-28T01:13
By Jacob
at 2019-10-01T10:12
at 2019-10-01T10:12
By Linda
at 2019-10-04T19:11
at 2019-10-04T19:11
By Mia
at 2019-10-08T04:10
at 2019-10-08T04:10
By Andy
at 2019-10-11T13:09
at 2019-10-11T13:09
By Lily
at 2019-10-14T22:07
at 2019-10-14T22:07
By Hazel
at 2019-10-18T07:06
at 2019-10-18T07:06
By Eartha
at 2019-10-21T16:05
at 2019-10-21T16:05
By Sierra Rose
at 2019-10-25T01:04
at 2019-10-25T01:04
By Daniel
at 2019-10-28T10:03
at 2019-10-28T10:03
By Joe
at 2019-10-31T19:02
at 2019-10-31T19:02
By Emma
at 2019-11-04T04:01
at 2019-11-04T04:01
By Ingrid
at 2019-11-07T13:00
at 2019-11-07T13:00
By Jack
at 2019-11-10T21:59
at 2019-11-10T21:59
By Andy
at 2019-11-14T06:58
at 2019-11-14T06:58
By Daniel
at 2019-11-17T15:57
at 2019-11-17T15:57
By Gilbert
at 2019-11-21T00:56
at 2019-11-21T00:56
By Ophelia
at 2019-11-24T09:55
at 2019-11-24T09:55
By Tracy
at 2019-11-27T18:54
at 2019-11-27T18:54
By Franklin
at 2019-12-01T03:53
at 2019-12-01T03:53
By Tracy
at 2019-12-04T12:51
at 2019-12-04T12:51
By Sandy
at 2019-12-07T21:50
at 2019-12-07T21:50
By Odelette
at 2019-12-11T06:49
at 2019-12-11T06:49
By Ula
at 2019-12-14T15:48
at 2019-12-14T15:48
By Frederica
at 2019-12-18T00:47
at 2019-12-18T00:47
By Lucy
at 2019-12-21T09:46
at 2019-12-21T09:46
By Callum
at 2019-12-24T18:45
at 2019-12-24T18:45
By Rebecca
at 2019-12-28T03:44
at 2019-12-28T03:44
By Zenobia
at 2019-12-31T12:43
at 2019-12-31T12:43
By Joseph
at 2020-01-03T21:42
at 2020-01-03T21:42
By Carolina Franco
at 2020-01-07T06:41
at 2020-01-07T06:41
By Leila
at 2020-01-10T15:40
at 2020-01-10T15:40
By Hedwig
at 2020-01-14T00:39
at 2020-01-14T00:39
By Ethan
at 2020-01-17T09:38
at 2020-01-17T09:38
By Rosalind
at 2020-01-20T18:37
at 2020-01-20T18:37
By Sierra Rose
at 2020-01-24T03:35
at 2020-01-24T03:35
By Edwina
at 2020-01-27T12:34
at 2020-01-27T12:34
By Ophelia
at 2020-01-30T21:33
at 2020-01-30T21:33
By Emma
at 2020-02-03T06:32
at 2020-02-03T06:32
By Olga
at 2020-02-06T15:31
at 2020-02-06T15:31
By Audriana
at 2020-02-10T00:30
at 2020-02-10T00:30
By Agatha
at 2020-02-13T09:29
at 2020-02-13T09:29
By George
at 2020-02-16T18:28
at 2020-02-16T18:28
By Olivia
at 2020-02-20T03:27
at 2020-02-20T03:27
By Steve
at 2020-02-23T12:26
at 2020-02-23T12:26
By Isabella
at 2020-02-26T21:25
at 2020-02-26T21:25
By John
at 2020-03-01T06:24
at 2020-03-01T06:24
By Wallis
at 2020-03-04T15:23
at 2020-03-04T15:23
By Valerie
at 2020-03-08T00:22
at 2020-03-08T00:22
By Jessica
at 2020-03-11T09:21
at 2020-03-11T09:21
By Anonymous
at 2020-03-14T18:19
at 2020-03-14T18:19
By Dorothy
at 2020-03-18T03:18
at 2020-03-18T03:18
By Steve
at 2020-03-21T12:17
at 2020-03-21T12:17
By Jessica
at 2020-03-24T21:16
at 2020-03-24T21:16
By Mia
at 2020-03-28T06:15
at 2020-03-28T06:15
By Suhail Hany
at 2020-03-31T15:14
at 2020-03-31T15:14
By Sandy
at 2020-04-04T00:13
at 2020-04-04T00:13
By Rachel
at 2020-04-07T09:12
at 2020-04-07T09:12
By Mia
at 2020-04-10T18:11
at 2020-04-10T18:11
By Hazel
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By Lily
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By Mary
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By Mary
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By Jacob
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By Rae
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By Susan
at 2020-05-04T09:03
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By Hardy
at 2020-05-07T18:02
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By George
at 2020-05-11T03:01
at 2020-05-11T03:01
By Sierra Rose
at 2020-05-14T12:00
at 2020-05-14T12:00
By Hamiltion
at 2020-05-17T20:59
at 2020-05-17T20:59
By Elvira
at 2020-05-21T05:58
at 2020-05-21T05:58
By Hedda
at 2020-05-24T14:57
at 2020-05-24T14:57
By William
at 2020-05-27T23:56
at 2020-05-27T23:56
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2020-05-31T08:55
at 2020-05-31T08:55
By David
at 2020-06-03T17:54
at 2020-06-03T17:54
By Kumar
at 2020-06-07T02:53
at 2020-06-07T02:53
By Ina
at 2020-06-10T11:52
at 2020-06-10T11:52
By Anonymous
at 2020-06-13T20:51
at 2020-06-13T20:51
By Zanna
at 2020-06-17T05:50
at 2020-06-17T05:50
By Tracy
at 2020-06-20T14:49
at 2020-06-20T14:49
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2020-06-23T23:47
at 2020-06-23T23:47
By Erin
at 2020-06-27T08:46
at 2020-06-27T08:46
By Erin
at 2020-06-30T17:45
at 2020-06-30T17:45
By Iris
at 2020-07-04T02:44
at 2020-07-04T02:44
By Candice
at 2020-07-07T11:43
at 2020-07-07T11:43
By Hedy
at 2020-07-10T20:42
at 2020-07-10T20:42
By David
at 2020-07-14T05:41
at 2020-07-14T05:41
By Damian
at 2020-07-17T14:40
at 2020-07-17T14:40
By Christine
at 2020-07-20T23:39
at 2020-07-20T23:39
By Linda
at 2020-07-24T08:38
at 2020-07-24T08:38
By Jacky
at 2020-07-27T17:37
at 2020-07-27T17:37
By Victoria
at 2020-07-31T02:36
at 2020-07-31T02:36
By Lucy
at 2020-08-03T11:35
at 2020-08-03T11:35
By Zenobia
at 2020-08-06T20:34
at 2020-08-06T20:34
By Charlie
at 2020-08-10T05:33
at 2020-08-10T05:33
By Margaret
at 2020-08-13T14:31
at 2020-08-13T14:31
By Quintina
at 2020-08-16T23:30
at 2020-08-16T23:30
By Steve
at 2020-08-20T08:29
at 2020-08-20T08:29
By Bethany
at 2020-08-23T17:28
at 2020-08-23T17:28
By Thomas
at 2020-08-27T02:27
at 2020-08-27T02:27
By Rosalind
at 2020-08-30T11:26
at 2020-08-30T11:26
By Michael
at 2020-09-02T20:25
at 2020-09-02T20:25
By Audriana
at 2020-09-06T05:24
at 2020-09-06T05:24
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2020-09-09T14:23
at 2020-09-09T14:23
By Ida
at 2020-09-12T23:22
at 2020-09-12T23:22
By Freda
at 2020-09-16T08:21
at 2020-09-16T08:21
By Thomas
at 2020-09-19T17:20
at 2020-09-19T17:20
By George
at 2020-09-23T02:19
at 2020-09-23T02:19
By Quanna
at 2020-09-26T11:18
at 2020-09-26T11:18
By Rachel
at 2020-09-29T20:17
at 2020-09-29T20:17
By Rebecca
at 2020-10-03T05:15
at 2020-10-03T05:15
By Xanthe
at 2020-10-06T14:14
at 2020-10-06T14:14
By Lucy
at 2020-10-09T23:13
at 2020-10-09T23:13
By Kristin
at 2020-10-13T08:12
at 2020-10-13T08:12
By Susan
at 2020-10-16T17:11
at 2020-10-16T17:11
By Damian
at 2020-10-20T02:10
at 2020-10-20T02:10
By Kristin
at 2020-10-23T11:09
at 2020-10-23T11:09
By Todd Johnson
at 2020-10-26T20:08
at 2020-10-26T20:08
By Oliver
at 2020-10-30T05:07
at 2020-10-30T05:07
By Rosalind
at 2020-11-02T14:06
at 2020-11-02T14:06
By Carolina Franco
at 2020-11-05T23:05
at 2020-11-05T23:05
By Rachel
at 2020-11-09T08:04
at 2020-11-09T08:04
By Dora
at 2020-11-12T17:03
at 2020-11-12T17:03
By Victoria
at 2020-11-16T02:02
at 2020-11-16T02:02
By Genevieve
at 2020-11-19T11:01
at 2020-11-19T11:01
By Catherine
at 2020-11-22T19:59
at 2020-11-22T19:59
By Odelette
at 2020-11-26T04:58
at 2020-11-26T04:58
By Sierra Rose
at 2020-11-29T13:57
at 2020-11-29T13:57
By Daph Bay
at 2020-12-02T22:56
at 2020-12-02T22:56
By Victoria
at 2020-12-06T07:55
at 2020-12-06T07:55
By Tom
at 2020-12-09T16:54
at 2020-12-09T16:54
By Dora
at 2020-12-13T01:53
at 2020-12-13T01:53
By Audriana
at 2020-12-16T10:52
at 2020-12-16T10:52
By Blanche
at 2020-12-19T19:51
at 2020-12-19T19:51
By Freda
at 2020-12-23T04:50
at 2020-12-23T04:50
By Tom
at 2020-12-26T13:49
at 2020-12-26T13:49
By Connor
at 2020-12-29T22:48
at 2020-12-29T22:48
By Hedy
at 2021-01-02T07:47
at 2021-01-02T07:47
By Frederic
at 2021-01-05T16:46
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By Charlotte
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By Callum
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By Adele
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By Harry
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By Sierra Rose
at 2021-01-29T07:38
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By Sarah
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By Queena
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at 2021-02-05T01:36
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By Jacob
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at 2021-02-15T04:33
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at 2021-02-21T22:31
By Annie
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By Jack
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By Madame
at 2021-03-04T01:27
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By Bethany
at 2021-03-07T10:26
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By Vanessa
at 2021-03-10T19:25
at 2021-03-10T19:25
By Edward Lewis
at 2021-03-14T04:24
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By Eartha
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By Daph Bay
at 2021-03-24T07:21
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By Barb Cronin
at 2021-03-27T16:20
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By Olga
at 2021-03-31T01:19
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By Adele
at 2021-04-03T10:18
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By Enid
at 2021-04-06T19:17
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By Isla
at 2021-04-10T04:16
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By Quanna
at 2021-04-13T13:15
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at 2021-04-16T22:14
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at 2021-04-20T07:13
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at 2021-04-23T16:11
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at 2021-04-27T01:10
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at 2021-05-07T04:07
at 2021-05-07T04:07
By Susan
at 2021-05-10T13:06
at 2021-05-10T13:06
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at 2021-05-13T22:05
at 2021-05-13T22:05
By Caroline
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at 2021-05-20T16:03
at 2021-05-20T16:03
By Andrew
at 2021-05-24T01:02
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at 2021-05-30T19:00
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at 2021-06-03T03:59
at 2021-06-03T03:59
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at 2021-06-06T12:58
at 2021-06-06T12:58
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at 2021-06-09T21:57
at 2021-06-09T21:57
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at 2021-06-13T06:55
at 2021-06-13T06:55
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at 2021-06-16T15:54
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By Skylar Davis
at 2021-06-20T00:53
at 2021-06-20T00:53
By Emma
at 2021-06-23T09:52
at 2021-06-23T09:52
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at 2021-06-26T18:51
at 2021-06-26T18:51
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at 2021-06-30T03:50
at 2021-06-30T03:50
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at 2021-07-03T12:49
at 2021-07-03T12:49
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at 2021-07-06T21:48
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By David
at 2021-07-10T06:47
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at 2021-07-17T00:45
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at 2021-07-20T09:44
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at 2021-07-23T18:43
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By Caitlin
at 2021-07-30T12:41
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By Iris
at 2021-08-06T06:38
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at 2021-08-09T15:37
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By Megan
at 2021-08-13T00:36
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By Ida
at 2021-08-16T09:35
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at 2021-08-19T18:34
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at 2021-08-23T03:33
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at 2021-08-26T12:32
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at 2021-08-29T21:31
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at 2021-09-02T06:30
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at 2021-09-05T15:29
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at 2021-09-15T18:26
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at 2021-09-19T03:25
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at 2021-09-25T21:22
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at 2021-10-19T12:15
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at 2021-10-26T06:13
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at 2021-11-08T18:09
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at 2021-11-12T03:07
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at 2021-12-15T20:57
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at 2021-12-31T17:17
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at 2021-12-31T17:17
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at 2021-12-28T08:18
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at 2021-12-31T17:17
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at 2021-12-31T17:17
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at 2021-12-28T08:18
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