桃園區域立委選情 - 桃園
By Thomas
at 2019-12-22T20:43
at 2019-12-22T20:43
Table of Contents
分析文章來自GSSC
【桃園市】多個選區呈拉鋸 藍營選情仍較具優勢
大選時間逐漸逼近,候選人參選登記也於11月底結束。桃園市本次共有28人登記參選區域
立委,以第三選區(中壢)共有六人登記參選最多。第六選區(八德、大溪、復興、中壢
區12里)雖然只有兩人參選,但皆是現任立委,競爭相當激烈。整體來看,桃園市立委選
情仍是國民黨及民進黨兩大黨之間的競爭,其他參選人現階段多受限於知名度與資源不足
,較難對大局產生影響。
第一選區(龜山、蘆竹、桃園區13里)參選者包含現任立委鄭運鵬(國民黨)、前立委陳
根德(國民黨)、陳泓維(台灣民眾黨)、沈育和(一邊一國行動黨)、楊淂鉉(無),
共五人。目前來看,鄭運鵬面對陳泓維及沈育和兩人瓜分年輕及綠營選票,選情相對緊繃
。但本區新移入選民比例較高,年輕、與地方連結不深是主要特徵,因此候選人形象及知
名度相對具有影響力,鄭運鵬仍有勝算。
第二選區(楊梅、新屋、觀音、大園)參選者包含黃世杰(民進黨)、吳志揚(國民黨)
、吳文凱(台灣維新黨)、張馨云(台澎黨)、陳志豪(中華統一促進黨),共五人。吳
志揚近來積極投放競選廣告,主打政策及補助,加上曾任縣長具有高知名度,選情看漲。
雖然陳賴素美未參選,但綠營仍存在整合問題,對黃世杰來說還有一場硬仗要打。
第三選區(中壢區73里)參選者包含魯明哲(國民黨)、彭俊豪(民進黨)、林佳瑋(時
代力量)、李奇峰(宗教聯盟)、胡文中(中華文化復興在理黨)、李文雄(無),共六
人。中壢選區雖然參選者眾,但魯明哲選情仍持續看好。
第四選區(桃園區66里)參選者包含鄭寶清(民進黨)、萬美玲(國民黨)、林國政(國
會政黨聯盟)、李中(勞動黨)、吳清江(合一行動聯盟),共五人。鄭寶清仍積極強化
與市長鄭文燦連結,但是否能成功將鄭文燦的高人氣轉化為自身選票仍待觀察。萬美玲選
情原本相對看好,但受總統選情連動影響,加上國會政黨聯盟、合一行動聯盟本來較吃藍
營選票,對選情沒有樂觀的本錢。
第五選區(平鎮、龍潭)參選者包含呂玉玲(國民黨)、蔣絜安(民進黨)、張誠(國會
政黨聯盟)、劉芳萍(勞動黨)、易乃文(無黨籍),共五人。蔣絜安近來勤跑基層擴大
知名度,但對上深耕許久的呂玉玲仍顯弱勢,整體選情仍以呂玉玲贏面較大。
第六選區(八德、大溪、復興、中壢區12里)參選者僅有趙正宇(無)及陳學聖(國民黨
)兩人。趙正宇雖然以無黨籍參選,但仍保持與民進黨合作,是否能循2016年的模式獲得
藍營選民諒解仍待觀察。陳學聖保持與韓國瑜的連結,同樣受總統選情影響,但考量本區
選民特性,陳學聖仍有一搏的機會。
--
【桃園市】多個選區呈拉鋸 藍營選情仍較具優勢
大選時間逐漸逼近,候選人參選登記也於11月底結束。桃園市本次共有28人登記參選區域
立委,以第三選區(中壢)共有六人登記參選最多。第六選區(八德、大溪、復興、中壢
區12里)雖然只有兩人參選,但皆是現任立委,競爭相當激烈。整體來看,桃園市立委選
情仍是國民黨及民進黨兩大黨之間的競爭,其他參選人現階段多受限於知名度與資源不足
,較難對大局產生影響。
第一選區(龜山、蘆竹、桃園區13里)參選者包含現任立委鄭運鵬(國民黨)、前立委陳
根德(國民黨)、陳泓維(台灣民眾黨)、沈育和(一邊一國行動黨)、楊淂鉉(無),
共五人。目前來看,鄭運鵬面對陳泓維及沈育和兩人瓜分年輕及綠營選票,選情相對緊繃
。但本區新移入選民比例較高,年輕、與地方連結不深是主要特徵,因此候選人形象及知
名度相對具有影響力,鄭運鵬仍有勝算。
第二選區(楊梅、新屋、觀音、大園)參選者包含黃世杰(民進黨)、吳志揚(國民黨)
、吳文凱(台灣維新黨)、張馨云(台澎黨)、陳志豪(中華統一促進黨),共五人。吳
志揚近來積極投放競選廣告,主打政策及補助,加上曾任縣長具有高知名度,選情看漲。
雖然陳賴素美未參選,但綠營仍存在整合問題,對黃世杰來說還有一場硬仗要打。
第三選區(中壢區73里)參選者包含魯明哲(國民黨)、彭俊豪(民進黨)、林佳瑋(時
代力量)、李奇峰(宗教聯盟)、胡文中(中華文化復興在理黨)、李文雄(無),共六
人。中壢選區雖然參選者眾,但魯明哲選情仍持續看好。
第四選區(桃園區66里)參選者包含鄭寶清(民進黨)、萬美玲(國民黨)、林國政(國
會政黨聯盟)、李中(勞動黨)、吳清江(合一行動聯盟),共五人。鄭寶清仍積極強化
與市長鄭文燦連結,但是否能成功將鄭文燦的高人氣轉化為自身選票仍待觀察。萬美玲選
情原本相對看好,但受總統選情連動影響,加上國會政黨聯盟、合一行動聯盟本來較吃藍
營選票,對選情沒有樂觀的本錢。
第五選區(平鎮、龍潭)參選者包含呂玉玲(國民黨)、蔣絜安(民進黨)、張誠(國會
政黨聯盟)、劉芳萍(勞動黨)、易乃文(無黨籍),共五人。蔣絜安近來勤跑基層擴大
知名度,但對上深耕許久的呂玉玲仍顯弱勢,整體選情仍以呂玉玲贏面較大。
第六選區(八德、大溪、復興、中壢區12里)參選者僅有趙正宇(無)及陳學聖(國民黨
)兩人。趙正宇雖然以無黨籍參選,但仍保持與民進黨合作,是否能循2016年的模式獲得
藍營選民諒解仍待觀察。陳學聖保持與韓國瑜的連結,同樣受總統選情影響,但考量本區
選民特性,陳學聖仍有一搏的機會。
--
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