愛情摩天輪專業分析 - 高雄
By Dinah
at 2018-10-25T21:41
at 2018-10-25T21:41
Table of Contents
【愛情摩天輪政策分析報告】
一份選址、工程、營運和維護的可行分析
文:陳柏惟 洪正
(文長但超認真、千萬別END)
一、引言:
高雄市長選情激烈,各方紛紛提出政策,中國國民黨籍高雄市長候選人韓國瑜先生對發展
經濟與觀光曾提出以下見解:
發展包裝愛河為愛情之河,興建全世界唯一的「愛情摩天輪」,把「摩天輪和汽車旅館結
合」,歡迎亞洲各地年青人來,「上去一小時做愛做的事」,花一分鐘就可以完成結婚,
把愛情之河美化起來,「右岸有羅密歐與茱麗葉、左有梁山伯與祝英台」,相信可帶動人
流,創造經濟產值。
鑑於「觀光與經濟」發展,確實是本市重要議題之一,韓候選人在政見發表中,並未說明
詳細工法、造價,且世界上並無「與汽車旅館結合」之摩天輪。因此,本人招集研究團隊
,包含土地、經濟專業人士,以及國內摩天輪專家,並利用團隊餐敘時間,實際至夢時代
「高雄之眼」摩天輪現場拍攝影片,佐以數據分析,以利市民了解。
二、可行性分析
1. 選址問題:
愛河觀光區,也是風景最佳區域位於出海口附近,特別是中正橋以下河段。此區左右兩岸
為已發展之市區,土地均已開發完畢,而愛河口左右岸已興建流行音樂中心,尚未利用之
土地,僅有第三船渠出海口的10號碼頭、以及16-17碼頭。此區目前港務公司均已有招商
開發計畫,若要興建摩天輪,必須廢棄舊有計畫,透過高港土開公司提出開發需求。
根據高應大土木系發表論文,以及本團隊比較《台灣堡圖》等資料,愛河口屬於「現代沖
積層」,在20世紀初期仍為海域,於日人二次築港時,始利用高雄港底泥完成填築作業。
以愛河右岸的鹽埕區而言,表土土質屬於鬆軟砂質黏土,和極鬆軟黏質沙土,而已高雄捷
運興建期間鑽探資料顯示,第三船渠附近黏土分佈於高程-0.44公尺至-09.84公尺、-23.5
4公尺至-45.14公尺以及-51.04至54.24公尺內,其餘為沈泥質砂或砂質粉土夾雜其間。整
體而言岩盤深度可能達-80公尺,土質較為鬆軟,根據中央地質研究所公布的地質液化潛
勢區,此區多處位於高風險區。
綜合以上,若要興建高層結構體,則需要相當長的摩擦樁增加固著力,以穩固摩天輪結構
。因此,本文根據國外相似摩天輪實際建築經驗,進一步分析相關結構需求。
2.結構問題:
根據韓候選人提出結合「汽車旅館」以及摩天輪「做愛做的事」需求,摩天輪車廂須結合
足夠生活面積、高空穩定性、以及生活支援機能等功能。
我們實際考察國內大型摩天輪,如夢時代、義大、美麗華、月眉等傳統摩天輪,車廂地板
面積大約在3-5平方公尺以下,難以滿足多元、高張力的「做愛做的事」需求。且車廂固
定方式多採輪軸設計,以配合摩天輪旋轉,容易晃動,居住舒適性差。
若單純考量住艙功能,則摩天輪需採用「莢艙」(Pod or passenger capsule)設計,並
使用多支點鋼架配合雙滑軌等設計,減少乘客移動時晃動性。
以世界較知名的「莢艙」式摩天輪而言,英國倫敦之眼高度135m,直徑120m,一個艙可搭
載25人,轉速為0.26公尺/米,轉一圈約30分鐘。而離台灣更近的新加坡飛行者,高度165
m,直徑150m,一個艙可搭乘28人,旋轉一圈也約30分鐘。其「莢艙」勉強可放下床鋪,
相對來講可提供較多元使用機能。
但須注意的是,由於摩天輪為圓形設計,在風動力學上,屬於高阻力不穩定結構,需要有
相當強度的鋼構斜撐系統。例如1500噸重的倫敦之眼,32個莢艙各重達10公噸,就有兩隻
巨型支架作為固定圓心主結構,並有六條額外鋼索固定。其地基由16根基樁深入地底33公
尺,提供足夠穩定性。
而由於倫敦、新加坡均非地震帶,受天氣威脅(如颱風)也不若高雄嚴重。因此高雄若要
興建結合旅館的景觀摩天輪,需要嚴密的結構計算與風洞實驗,再考慮土質因素,結構強
度需要遠高於英國與新加坡,造價也會額外增加。
3.造價預估:
許多選民,稱讚韓先生政見充滿創意,的確,此類旅館摩天輪確實是世界未見,僅有圖面
上的想像圖,連進入設計與計算階段也沒有。
若我們單純根據前述英國與新加坡經驗來看,倫敦之眼造價7000萬英鎊(約29億);新加
坡飛行者造價2.4億新幣(約55億台幣)。由於高雄愛情摩天輪需要能抗強風與地震的強
化結構,包含耐震系統,主動與被動消能系統,再加上考量居住機能,包含座艙內供水、
供電、機電設備、遮光光學玻璃等性能,則造價更高。
為了增加安全性,減少房客恐懼,若考量使用較高標準的隔震系統,以一般鋼骨建築而言
,可能增加30%造價,則摩天輪造價將高達70億以上。
而若實際考慮韓先生強調,結合「汽車旅館」與摩天輪,則可能是座艙要讓汽車直接開入
(如一般汽車旅館許多均能直接開車進入房間下方),或至少興建某種直接連接設備,這
樣的造價都還要更高。
另外,機械移動式旅館台灣並無先例,需要符合我國消防法、建築法規,亦可能涉及修法
和解釋,並通過相關主管機構的安全檢查,並要定期保養、定檢。再加上環評、都審等流
程,都會增加造價。
若以55億造價而言,相當於一座流行音樂中心、或四座高雄市總圖造價,若以70-100億造
價而言,甚至可能接近衛武營造價。有可能成為高雄近年最昂貴的單一建物土建工程。
4. 營運財務問題:
以摩天輪促進觀光,世界上的確有先例,然而,詳盡可行的財務分析,和市場調查,應是
永續運轉的前提。
我們先考慮搭乘意願部分,根據韓候選人對高雄了解,高雄「又老又窮」,可見有消費力
的年輕人相當有限。因此,「票價」應是摩天輪集客力重要議題。
再以新加坡飛行者而言,門票33新幣(約760台幣)整艙門票約為2.1萬台幣;倫敦之眼門
票26英鎊(約1066台幣),整艙門票約為2.6萬台幣,體驗時間為30分鐘。以韓候選人提
出一小時的標準而言,若包艙則需要4.2~5.2萬左右。而以一般汽車旅館休息方案,或年
輕人體力標準,可能需要2~3小時,也就是9~15萬左右費用。如此高昂票價,營運壓力相
當沈重。
加上汽車旅館需要有房務部門,在旅客使用完畢後,進行清潔,更換備品,鋪床等動作。
但摩天輪仍在旋轉中,因此房務進入後,必須在半小時左右清潔完畢。此點將嚴重影響摩
天輪的佔有與週轉率,同時房務人員壓力也會相當沈重。
另外,因為作為旅館使用,摩天輪需要具備防火、救災等多重機能,一般的摩天輪內不會
有棉被等易燃物,也不會因「做愛做的事」的多元挑戰,而產生額外的房間破壞、髒污或
其他狀況。本文亦建議,愛情摩天輪的營業,在防災、逃生上,需要有充分準備和演練。
而考量國外經驗,新加坡飛行者在開幕之初,雖然一票難求,成功打響知名度,但因營運
公司諸多問題,仍於5年後破產轉手。可見大型摩天輪的高昂造價,營運風險絕對不低。
世界上亦不乏摩天輪相關業者倒閉,甚至將摩天輪轉手出售案例。
再加上韓候選人也批評,高雄市財務困難,興建的55~100億相關經費,是要由公部門支出
,或透過促參法招商?而興建營運應採政府自營、OT、BOT、BOO或其他方式,也宜審慎評
估。否則除了興建費用外,政府需額外支付每年維護費用和負擔高額財務風險。
三、結論與建議
韓候選人提出的於愛河口興建結合汽車旅館的愛情摩天輪政策,根據本團隊在敷地條件、
工程技術、造價成本、營運財務四大層面分析,興建上並非完全不可行,但可能令市庫支
出55-100億成本,承受高昂營運風險,並有可能成為高雄最昂貴、但最無法回收成本的公
共建設。
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一份選址、工程、營運和維護的可行分析
文:陳柏惟 洪正
(文長但超認真、千萬別END)
一、引言:
高雄市長選情激烈,各方紛紛提出政策,中國國民黨籍高雄市長候選人韓國瑜先生對發展
經濟與觀光曾提出以下見解:
發展包裝愛河為愛情之河,興建全世界唯一的「愛情摩天輪」,把「摩天輪和汽車旅館結
合」,歡迎亞洲各地年青人來,「上去一小時做愛做的事」,花一分鐘就可以完成結婚,
把愛情之河美化起來,「右岸有羅密歐與茱麗葉、左有梁山伯與祝英台」,相信可帶動人
流,創造經濟產值。
鑑於「觀光與經濟」發展,確實是本市重要議題之一,韓候選人在政見發表中,並未說明
詳細工法、造價,且世界上並無「與汽車旅館結合」之摩天輪。因此,本人招集研究團隊
,包含土地、經濟專業人士,以及國內摩天輪專家,並利用團隊餐敘時間,實際至夢時代
「高雄之眼」摩天輪現場拍攝影片,佐以數據分析,以利市民了解。
二、可行性分析
1. 選址問題:
愛河觀光區,也是風景最佳區域位於出海口附近,特別是中正橋以下河段。此區左右兩岸
為已發展之市區,土地均已開發完畢,而愛河口左右岸已興建流行音樂中心,尚未利用之
土地,僅有第三船渠出海口的10號碼頭、以及16-17碼頭。此區目前港務公司均已有招商
開發計畫,若要興建摩天輪,必須廢棄舊有計畫,透過高港土開公司提出開發需求。
根據高應大土木系發表論文,以及本團隊比較《台灣堡圖》等資料,愛河口屬於「現代沖
積層」,在20世紀初期仍為海域,於日人二次築港時,始利用高雄港底泥完成填築作業。
以愛河右岸的鹽埕區而言,表土土質屬於鬆軟砂質黏土,和極鬆軟黏質沙土,而已高雄捷
運興建期間鑽探資料顯示,第三船渠附近黏土分佈於高程-0.44公尺至-09.84公尺、-23.5
4公尺至-45.14公尺以及-51.04至54.24公尺內,其餘為沈泥質砂或砂質粉土夾雜其間。整
體而言岩盤深度可能達-80公尺,土質較為鬆軟,根據中央地質研究所公布的地質液化潛
勢區,此區多處位於高風險區。
綜合以上,若要興建高層結構體,則需要相當長的摩擦樁增加固著力,以穩固摩天輪結構
。因此,本文根據國外相似摩天輪實際建築經驗,進一步分析相關結構需求。
2.結構問題:
根據韓候選人提出結合「汽車旅館」以及摩天輪「做愛做的事」需求,摩天輪車廂須結合
足夠生活面積、高空穩定性、以及生活支援機能等功能。
我們實際考察國內大型摩天輪,如夢時代、義大、美麗華、月眉等傳統摩天輪,車廂地板
面積大約在3-5平方公尺以下,難以滿足多元、高張力的「做愛做的事」需求。且車廂固
定方式多採輪軸設計,以配合摩天輪旋轉,容易晃動,居住舒適性差。
若單純考量住艙功能,則摩天輪需採用「莢艙」(Pod or passenger capsule)設計,並
使用多支點鋼架配合雙滑軌等設計,減少乘客移動時晃動性。
以世界較知名的「莢艙」式摩天輪而言,英國倫敦之眼高度135m,直徑120m,一個艙可搭
載25人,轉速為0.26公尺/米,轉一圈約30分鐘。而離台灣更近的新加坡飛行者,高度165
m,直徑150m,一個艙可搭乘28人,旋轉一圈也約30分鐘。其「莢艙」勉強可放下床鋪,
相對來講可提供較多元使用機能。
但須注意的是,由於摩天輪為圓形設計,在風動力學上,屬於高阻力不穩定結構,需要有
相當強度的鋼構斜撐系統。例如1500噸重的倫敦之眼,32個莢艙各重達10公噸,就有兩隻
巨型支架作為固定圓心主結構,並有六條額外鋼索固定。其地基由16根基樁深入地底33公
尺,提供足夠穩定性。
而由於倫敦、新加坡均非地震帶,受天氣威脅(如颱風)也不若高雄嚴重。因此高雄若要
興建結合旅館的景觀摩天輪,需要嚴密的結構計算與風洞實驗,再考慮土質因素,結構強
度需要遠高於英國與新加坡,造價也會額外增加。
3.造價預估:
許多選民,稱讚韓先生政見充滿創意,的確,此類旅館摩天輪確實是世界未見,僅有圖面
上的想像圖,連進入設計與計算階段也沒有。
若我們單純根據前述英國與新加坡經驗來看,倫敦之眼造價7000萬英鎊(約29億);新加
坡飛行者造價2.4億新幣(約55億台幣)。由於高雄愛情摩天輪需要能抗強風與地震的強
化結構,包含耐震系統,主動與被動消能系統,再加上考量居住機能,包含座艙內供水、
供電、機電設備、遮光光學玻璃等性能,則造價更高。
為了增加安全性,減少房客恐懼,若考量使用較高標準的隔震系統,以一般鋼骨建築而言
,可能增加30%造價,則摩天輪造價將高達70億以上。
而若實際考慮韓先生強調,結合「汽車旅館」與摩天輪,則可能是座艙要讓汽車直接開入
(如一般汽車旅館許多均能直接開車進入房間下方),或至少興建某種直接連接設備,這
樣的造價都還要更高。
另外,機械移動式旅館台灣並無先例,需要符合我國消防法、建築法規,亦可能涉及修法
和解釋,並通過相關主管機構的安全檢查,並要定期保養、定檢。再加上環評、都審等流
程,都會增加造價。
若以55億造價而言,相當於一座流行音樂中心、或四座高雄市總圖造價,若以70-100億造
價而言,甚至可能接近衛武營造價。有可能成為高雄近年最昂貴的單一建物土建工程。
4. 營運財務問題:
以摩天輪促進觀光,世界上的確有先例,然而,詳盡可行的財務分析,和市場調查,應是
永續運轉的前提。
我們先考慮搭乘意願部分,根據韓候選人對高雄了解,高雄「又老又窮」,可見有消費力
的年輕人相當有限。因此,「票價」應是摩天輪集客力重要議題。
再以新加坡飛行者而言,門票33新幣(約760台幣)整艙門票約為2.1萬台幣;倫敦之眼門
票26英鎊(約1066台幣),整艙門票約為2.6萬台幣,體驗時間為30分鐘。以韓候選人提
出一小時的標準而言,若包艙則需要4.2~5.2萬左右。而以一般汽車旅館休息方案,或年
輕人體力標準,可能需要2~3小時,也就是9~15萬左右費用。如此高昂票價,營運壓力相
當沈重。
加上汽車旅館需要有房務部門,在旅客使用完畢後,進行清潔,更換備品,鋪床等動作。
但摩天輪仍在旋轉中,因此房務進入後,必須在半小時左右清潔完畢。此點將嚴重影響摩
天輪的佔有與週轉率,同時房務人員壓力也會相當沈重。
另外,因為作為旅館使用,摩天輪需要具備防火、救災等多重機能,一般的摩天輪內不會
有棉被等易燃物,也不會因「做愛做的事」的多元挑戰,而產生額外的房間破壞、髒污或
其他狀況。本文亦建議,愛情摩天輪的營業,在防災、逃生上,需要有充分準備和演練。
而考量國外經驗,新加坡飛行者在開幕之初,雖然一票難求,成功打響知名度,但因營運
公司諸多問題,仍於5年後破產轉手。可見大型摩天輪的高昂造價,營運風險絕對不低。
世界上亦不乏摩天輪相關業者倒閉,甚至將摩天輪轉手出售案例。
再加上韓候選人也批評,高雄市財務困難,興建的55~100億相關經費,是要由公部門支出
,或透過促參法招商?而興建營運應採政府自營、OT、BOT、BOO或其他方式,也宜審慎評
估。否則除了興建費用外,政府需額外支付每年維護費用和負擔高額財務風險。
三、結論與建議
韓候選人提出的於愛河口興建結合汽車旅館的愛情摩天輪政策,根據本團隊在敷地條件、
工程技術、造價成本、營運財務四大層面分析,興建上並非完全不可行,但可能令市庫支
出55-100億成本,承受高昂營運風險,並有可能成為高雄最昂貴、但最無法回收成本的公
共建設。
—
高雄板非心情板、個板,無關高雄廣泛市民之文章請勿張貼。
例如:我家隔壁的母貓生了小貓、對面的阿婆一個人獨居之類的。
這裡是高雄板,請討論與多數高雄市民有直接關聯性的文章。
高雄點請參考板規1-2
修改文章標題請於文章列表按大寫T
修改文章內文請於文章列表按大寫E
同性質文章請以大E修改內文方式加註,請勿於板上重覆多發
--
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