年輕人嘆買不起房 房市大咖謝坤成:不能 - 台中
By Quintina
at 2021-11-07T06:16
at 2021-11-07T06:16
Table of Contents
2021年11月6日
年輕人嘆買不起房 房市大咖謝坤成:不能說買不起賓士,就是不公平
台灣房價上漲、薪水凍漲,加上通膨發酵,民生物資也跟著水漲船高,不少年輕人大嘆買
不起房,中華民國不動產代銷同業公會全聯會理事長暨萬群地產董事長謝坤成說:「不能
買不起賓士車,就說國家對不起我們」,第一次買房有第一次的做法,就像初出茅廬,沒
錢就先騎機車、沒錢就買二手車,買房也是一樣,建議年輕人可先從中古屋著手,隨著需
求一步步換屋。
謝坤成觀察房地產市場數十年,儘管經營的是代銷事業、專售預售案、新成屋,但新屋房
價向來領先反應市場價格,他認為,在房價多頭之際,就算購屋族抱怨房價高昂,短期內
恐怕也不見價格下修,以目前台中內環預售屋行情,平均行情落在35-40萬元,但是同區
域內的中古大樓、公寓產品仍找得到1字頭物件。
依人生階段購屋 買不起新房買二手房
謝坤成認為,年輕人若購屋預算有限,就應採用有限預算的作法,就像剛畢業的社會新鮮
人,需要交通工具就從騎機車開始,需要用車時先從二手車開始,買房也是同理可證,「
預算有限就先買中古屋,交通便利、生活機能好的市中心一定找得到相對新房子便宜的中
古屋」,等到若干年後,事業有成收入增加,再換成新成屋也不遲。
他表示,非常鼓勵年輕人買房子,並不是一輩子得和一間房子天長地久,房子是一種消耗
品,也會有折舊,因此應該要依照人生階段,多少能力做多少事。
此外,謝坤成也認為,不是所有人都得購屋才算是人生勝利組,每個人對生活價值觀、金
錢觀都不同,如果能力不足不一定得勉強購屋,現階段地方政府大量興建只租不賣的社會
社宅,民眾也不一定得選擇揹一個重重的殼,可以衡量自己的財務能力,先租屋等待資產
累積,再選擇購屋或租屋也不遲。
政府帶頭標售、地主跟進 建商毫無退路
談到近期土地、房屋價格飆漲,不少人將茅頭指向建商,謝坤成照往常一樣直話直說,他
一針見血地指出,政府標售、大廠搶地建廠推升地價,加上營建時間拉長,「建商現在根
本沒有退路,只能去求土地(地主)。」
謝坤成指出,近期房價呈現全台性、無差別式的飆漲,其原因有四,最關鍵的在於,台灣
地狹人稠,什麼東西都能進口,唯有土地不能進口,而在這幾年中美貿易戰、新冠肺炎肆
虐之下,不只是開發商搶地,科技大廠回台獵地蓋廠房,在供給量小、需求量增加之下,
房屋的原料土地成本上揚是必然的趨勢,且土地持有最大宗的中央、地方政府,近年政府
土地標售價格屢創新高,早已不是新聞,許多地主也跟著政府腳步開出天價,使得建商在
取得土地時,成本層層疊高。
其次,產業回流、缺工缺料,使得營建成本高漲,謝坤成指出,以台中而言,不算土地取
得成本,光是計算人力、營建材料、購地利息支出、管銷成本及合理利潤,房屋一坪成本
就上看20萬元,加上地價飆漲,房屋成本不可同日而語。
通膨隱憂發酵 購屋族湧入房市
另外,全世界都面臨到的通膨問題,以台灣而言定存利率僅0.8%上下,通膨年增率在2%上
下,資產每年都在縮水,想要抗通膨避險,房產是最受資金青睞的產品,「低利率」則是
最後促使房價攀升之主因,謝坤成表示,近年房貸利息位於相對低點,不少首購換屋族逢
低進場,「多數人都抱持著現在不揹房貸、什麼時候揹的心態」,剛性需求紛紛出籠購屋
推升房價。
謝坤成直指上述種種的因素才是造成房價飆漲的元兇,並非建商將獲利拉高,「在這波成
本飆漲之下,去年初把手上建案都賣掉的建商在後續興建時,甚至都是賠錢的,一個建案
毛利率約30%,但過往只要2.5-3年就可以完工入帳,但如今從購地到完工得拉長至5年,
攤算到每年平均獲利僅6%,建商利潤並不豐厚,若房價不隨著成本上漲,建商根本沒有退
路。」
https://estate.ltn.com.tw/article/12765
--
年輕人嘆買不起房 房市大咖謝坤成:不能說買不起賓士,就是不公平
台灣房價上漲、薪水凍漲,加上通膨發酵,民生物資也跟著水漲船高,不少年輕人大嘆買
不起房,中華民國不動產代銷同業公會全聯會理事長暨萬群地產董事長謝坤成說:「不能
買不起賓士車,就說國家對不起我們」,第一次買房有第一次的做法,就像初出茅廬,沒
錢就先騎機車、沒錢就買二手車,買房也是一樣,建議年輕人可先從中古屋著手,隨著需
求一步步換屋。
謝坤成觀察房地產市場數十年,儘管經營的是代銷事業、專售預售案、新成屋,但新屋房
價向來領先反應市場價格,他認為,在房價多頭之際,就算購屋族抱怨房價高昂,短期內
恐怕也不見價格下修,以目前台中內環預售屋行情,平均行情落在35-40萬元,但是同區
域內的中古大樓、公寓產品仍找得到1字頭物件。
依人生階段購屋 買不起新房買二手房
謝坤成認為,年輕人若購屋預算有限,就應採用有限預算的作法,就像剛畢業的社會新鮮
人,需要交通工具就從騎機車開始,需要用車時先從二手車開始,買房也是同理可證,「
預算有限就先買中古屋,交通便利、生活機能好的市中心一定找得到相對新房子便宜的中
古屋」,等到若干年後,事業有成收入增加,再換成新成屋也不遲。
他表示,非常鼓勵年輕人買房子,並不是一輩子得和一間房子天長地久,房子是一種消耗
品,也會有折舊,因此應該要依照人生階段,多少能力做多少事。
此外,謝坤成也認為,不是所有人都得購屋才算是人生勝利組,每個人對生活價值觀、金
錢觀都不同,如果能力不足不一定得勉強購屋,現階段地方政府大量興建只租不賣的社會
社宅,民眾也不一定得選擇揹一個重重的殼,可以衡量自己的財務能力,先租屋等待資產
累積,再選擇購屋或租屋也不遲。
政府帶頭標售、地主跟進 建商毫無退路
談到近期土地、房屋價格飆漲,不少人將茅頭指向建商,謝坤成照往常一樣直話直說,他
一針見血地指出,政府標售、大廠搶地建廠推升地價,加上營建時間拉長,「建商現在根
本沒有退路,只能去求土地(地主)。」
謝坤成指出,近期房價呈現全台性、無差別式的飆漲,其原因有四,最關鍵的在於,台灣
地狹人稠,什麼東西都能進口,唯有土地不能進口,而在這幾年中美貿易戰、新冠肺炎肆
虐之下,不只是開發商搶地,科技大廠回台獵地蓋廠房,在供給量小、需求量增加之下,
房屋的原料土地成本上揚是必然的趨勢,且土地持有最大宗的中央、地方政府,近年政府
土地標售價格屢創新高,早已不是新聞,許多地主也跟著政府腳步開出天價,使得建商在
取得土地時,成本層層疊高。
其次,產業回流、缺工缺料,使得營建成本高漲,謝坤成指出,以台中而言,不算土地取
得成本,光是計算人力、營建材料、購地利息支出、管銷成本及合理利潤,房屋一坪成本
就上看20萬元,加上地價飆漲,房屋成本不可同日而語。
通膨隱憂發酵 購屋族湧入房市
另外,全世界都面臨到的通膨問題,以台灣而言定存利率僅0.8%上下,通膨年增率在2%上
下,資產每年都在縮水,想要抗通膨避險,房產是最受資金青睞的產品,「低利率」則是
最後促使房價攀升之主因,謝坤成表示,近年房貸利息位於相對低點,不少首購換屋族逢
低進場,「多數人都抱持著現在不揹房貸、什麼時候揹的心態」,剛性需求紛紛出籠購屋
推升房價。
謝坤成直指上述種種的因素才是造成房價飆漲的元兇,並非建商將獲利拉高,「在這波成
本飆漲之下,去年初把手上建案都賣掉的建商在後續興建時,甚至都是賠錢的,一個建案
毛利率約30%,但過往只要2.5-3年就可以完工入帳,但如今從購地到完工得拉長至5年,
攤算到每年平均獲利僅6%,建商利潤並不豐厚,若房價不隨著成本上漲,建商根本沒有退
路。」
https://estate.ltn.com.tw/article/12765
--
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台中
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