尼莎颱風的提醒 - 高雄
By Sierra Rose
at 2017-07-28T14:24
at 2017-07-28T14:24
Table of Contents
下面內容將略為修正,修正處以紫色註記
災害性天氣,請以中央氣象局發佈的警報為準
以下純粹是以不同預報方式來討論本次颱風的可能影響
沒興趣可以直接end,直接看結論
颱風接近臺灣時的路徑,經統計共10種
就預報路徑初分,尼莎颱風屬於第3類/第4類
1.颱風類比法
找出與本次颱風相似大氣環境配置的天氣圖,並參考
當時的變化狀況,作為本次預報的參考:
地面天氣圖的配置上,尼莎颱風在菲律賓東方海面生成
朝350轉320方向移動,在南海有一熱帶性低氣壓並存
在西北太平洋還有另一個颱風諾魯
中南半島到西北太平洋均處在一個大低壓帶當中
這樣的系統配置與莫拉克相似
(近似的配置不等同會有相同的狀況,不要簡化成會有災難)
2.數值預報模式
這是現階段預報的主流,將大氣現象轉換為物理方程式
帶入現有的觀測數據,讓電腦運算後續的變化:
目前被廣為流傳的網站是windy( https://www.windytv.com )
裡面有兩個模式,一個是歐洲EC,另一個是GFS
在EC的模式中,29日下午花東登陸後,在高雄臺南交界處
形成副低壓中心過山,再持續朝320方向移動,後續南海的熱帶性低氣壓北上
旺盛的西南氣流,直接衝擊臺南高雄屏東一帶
副低壓重組過山的狀況,讓人回想起了2001年的潭美
而熱帶性低氣壓北上,還是有莫拉克的影子
GFS的預報就簡單些,直接中心過山,並與南海的熱帶性低氣壓結合
後續仍然是旺盛的西南氣流
綜上:
本次泥沙颱風~~更正,
尼莎颱風配置上像莫拉克,模擬的路徑上有潭美的影子
首要為降雨造成的狀況,其次才是風力的影響
通過時本身含有的水氣,並牽引熱帶低壓北上
30日-31日間熱帶低壓自臺灣海峽通過,由於沒有中央山脈阻擋
屆時強風直接灌入,除為臺南、高雄、屏東一帶,平地需提防強風
山區因地形效應也會有大雨,雨量會非常可觀
鑑於高雄主要以高屏溪為供水處,原水濁度升高可能會暫停供水
建議除了糧食外,亦應預備乾淨的水源,避免突然停水措手不及
7/28日下午到晚上:颱風下沉氣流影響,不利高屏的午後對流發展,為
多雲的天氣,晚上記得要採買民生用品啊!!!
7/29日早上:颱風中心到達臺東外海,南部受到外圍雲系影響,開始有零星的短暫小雨
7/29日下午到晚上:颱風中心準備登陸,風勢逐漸增強,持續的大雨
7/30日整天:尼莎颱風中心出海,並牽引熱帶低壓北上,
由南往北通過臺灣海峽,南部地區持續大風大雨
7/31日白天:尼莎颱風已經到達福建,南部天氣剛脫離暴風圈,但仍然以降雨天氣為主
這段期間建議各位,出門前請多參考雷達回波變化,隨身攜帶雨具,
騎車請改搭大眾運輸工具,多加留意交通安全
這次可能是陳市長滯洪池建設的期中(末)考,好在近期都不是大潮日
應該是能順利all pass吧~~~天佑高雄
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我是做軍用的
不是做信用
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