HR.1044/S.386 通過三讀.. - 留學
By Mason
at 2020-12-03T12:02
at 2020-12-03T12:02
Table of Contents
※ [本文轉錄自 Immigration 看板 #1Vo5GH9z ]
作者: cybergenie ((不要看這裏)) 看板: Immigration
標題: [情報] HR.1044 通過三讀
時間: Thu Dec 3 10:57:15 2020
是的。目前的狀況就是今日 HR.1044 在 Sen. Mike Lee 的 UC 下,在無人提出異議的情
況之下通過參院了。
Mike Lee 在 UC 時,大概是怕節外生枝,跟著前面議員的話,花了快十分鐘講了 ALS 罕
病相關法案時,最後三句話三秒瞬間帶上 HR.1044:
THE LIVES OF THE MEN AND WOMEN WHO SUFFER FROM OTHER VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE JUST AS VALUABLE AND WE SHOULD BE A VOICE FOR THEM TOO. AS IF IN
LEGISLATIVE SESSION, I ASK UNANIMOUS CONSENT THAT THE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE BE
DISCHARGED FROM FURTHER CONSIDERATION OF H.R. 1044, AND THE SENATE PROCEED TO
ITS IMMEDIATE CONSIDERATION.
然後就無異議三讀通過了。這神操作真是令人大開眼界。
為什麼是 HR.1044 不是 S.386 呢?因為這版本完全沒帶上之前近兩年數次 UC-BLOCK 之
間所帶上的條款。因此,這個版本就是完全由 Lee 主導,加上部份與 Scott 妥協的結果
。重點:
1. 自 2021 年起,保留 30% 給其他國家,到第七年留 5%。
2. H1b 加 cap。
3. 禁止有受軍事訓練,與中共有關連者申請 AOS。
那麼,目前情況是這法案將會回到眾院。估計不會有太大的阻力。只是年關將近,接下來
可能有三種路徑:
1. 眾院快馬加鞭完成成序送到川普桌上,川普決定通過,送他競選對手一個大禮。
2. 眾院快馬加鞭完成成序送到川普桌上,川普可能否決。
3. 包裹進預算法案一起通過送到川普桌上。川普可能否決機會小。
那麼,通過之後移民會面臨什麼情況呢?
當然,印度人絕對會大舉出籠。這會全面改變美國就業環境的 landscape。這是我們石虎
小隊主要的研究內容以及準備給遊說團的主要論述。我們之後事過境遷若有機會的話可以
分享一些。
另外,中國人首當其衝。不過這是美國政治大環境的問題。應該是無解。
至於 ROW,在有七年期間保留名額期間,應該就是漸漸會感覺到排期變長了。但是會變多
糟則要看實務上 H1b 加 cap 要怎麼進行。
事實上,當 Biden/Harris 宣佈當選之後,Removing per-country cap 已經是必然的結果
。今天的 UC 也可以說標誌了重要的 R 黨議員跳船了。我們比較意外的是,這發生得比我
們想得要早了大概半年到一年左右。為什麼呢?Harris 就是 S.386 的起草人。她當上 VP
之後,雖然在參院已無直接影響力,但是郤掌握著比參議員更大的權力。甚至在參議院,
可能成為關鍵的一票。
另一方面,就如同我一再說明的,S.386 就是一個不重要的法案,要過不過,除了起草人
以外沒人在乎。在這種情況之下,Scott 確實沒有理由為了一個即將下野的總統以及一票
沒有投票權的移民來得罪未來美國政壇上的關鍵人物。所以可以說,Trump 沒連任,S.386
就是必然的結果之一。這只是早晚的問題而己。
Trump 幹得好不好?每個人心中自有一把尺。但是就反對 S.386 的群眾而言,反 Trump
而去支持 Biden/Harris 那就真的很詭異了。奇怪的是,這種人不但有,為數還不少。一
邊反 386 一邊還配合 D 黨各種帶風向?這真是令人不解。
我想跟各位一樣身在海外,尤其是在美國的台灣移民講,拜託不要只看電視臉書來了解美
國政治。我常跟朋友說,參與反 386 這件事情就是我的藍藥丸。透過參與反 386,我幾乎
是被迫的去了解每一個政治新聞背後的緣由。看到美國媒體如何的醜化不討喜的政治人物
,選擇性的 fact check。也就是這樣,把我一個傳統左派支持者一路推到最右邊。我這樣
說並不是說媒體就一定對或錯。而是,花點時間去找 C-SPAN 原始影音,國會網站上都有
很多原始資料可供參考,就是要花時間去看而己。這應該比媒體餵你什麼你就吃有什麼來
得有意義吧。
最後,這美好的一仗我們已經打過了。雖然這不是我們想看到的結果,但是我非常感謝石
虎小隊的成員,在這一年多時間種摸索潛入敵營套取情報,作美圖在 twitter 帶風向,
上訪議員辦公室跟敵人互撕,各種數據收集運算真的發揮很大的效果。我們針對 S.368
對各州的 job landscape 研究吸引到很多議員主動向我們索取報告,也順利吸引到像
chuck 一樣的反 S.386 大 V 在廣播中討論我們的研究。我們的好戰友 FAPA 也是真的各
種努力幫台灣人爭取權益。之前台灣專屬綠卡的提案也是出自 FAPA 之手。版上有很多人
怪罪 FAPA 在這事上不聞不問。並不是這樣子的。
這事情還沒完全定案下來,跟美國總統選舉也有一定的關連。這層級超出我們草根團體的
射程很多,但是在這最後一兩個月我們就是會去努力看看。
--
→ k_______n:我推的平權政策 都不著重種族之間的平等,改強調種族之間的差別待遇
→ k_______n:年輕人都很歡迎 但就是太過激進 另外再特別給非裔專屬特權
→ k_______n:這兩個配起來非常棒 最好是加點街頭暴力
推 j_________n:那就不算是種族平等了吧..
→ k_______n:不是種族平等 這平權政策 看起來跟種族主義90%很像
→ p____u:那就是種族主義阿幹
--
作者: cybergenie ((不要看這裏)) 看板: Immigration
標題: [情報] HR.1044 通過三讀
時間: Thu Dec 3 10:57:15 2020
是的。目前的狀況就是今日 HR.1044 在 Sen. Mike Lee 的 UC 下,在無人提出異議的情
況之下通過參院了。
Mike Lee 在 UC 時,大概是怕節外生枝,跟著前面議員的話,花了快十分鐘講了 ALS 罕
病相關法案時,最後三句話三秒瞬間帶上 HR.1044:
THE LIVES OF THE MEN AND WOMEN WHO SUFFER FROM OTHER VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE JUST AS VALUABLE AND WE SHOULD BE A VOICE FOR THEM TOO. AS IF IN
LEGISLATIVE SESSION, I ASK UNANIMOUS CONSENT THAT THE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE BE
DISCHARGED FROM FURTHER CONSIDERATION OF H.R. 1044, AND THE SENATE PROCEED TO
ITS IMMEDIATE CONSIDERATION.
然後就無異議三讀通過了。這神操作真是令人大開眼界。
為什麼是 HR.1044 不是 S.386 呢?因為這版本完全沒帶上之前近兩年數次 UC-BLOCK 之
間所帶上的條款。因此,這個版本就是完全由 Lee 主導,加上部份與 Scott 妥協的結果
。重點:
1. 自 2021 年起,保留 30% 給其他國家,到第七年留 5%。
2. H1b 加 cap。
3. 禁止有受軍事訓練,與中共有關連者申請 AOS。
那麼,目前情況是這法案將會回到眾院。估計不會有太大的阻力。只是年關將近,接下來
可能有三種路徑:
1. 眾院快馬加鞭完成成序送到川普桌上,川普決定通過,送他競選對手一個大禮。
2. 眾院快馬加鞭完成成序送到川普桌上,川普可能否決。
3. 包裹進預算法案一起通過送到川普桌上。川普可能否決機會小。
那麼,通過之後移民會面臨什麼情況呢?
當然,印度人絕對會大舉出籠。這會全面改變美國就業環境的 landscape。這是我們石虎
小隊主要的研究內容以及準備給遊說團的主要論述。我們之後事過境遷若有機會的話可以
分享一些。
另外,中國人首當其衝。不過這是美國政治大環境的問題。應該是無解。
至於 ROW,在有七年期間保留名額期間,應該就是漸漸會感覺到排期變長了。但是會變多
糟則要看實務上 H1b 加 cap 要怎麼進行。
事實上,當 Biden/Harris 宣佈當選之後,Removing per-country cap 已經是必然的結果
。今天的 UC 也可以說標誌了重要的 R 黨議員跳船了。我們比較意外的是,這發生得比我
們想得要早了大概半年到一年左右。為什麼呢?Harris 就是 S.386 的起草人。她當上 VP
之後,雖然在參院已無直接影響力,但是郤掌握著比參議員更大的權力。甚至在參議院,
可能成為關鍵的一票。
另一方面,就如同我一再說明的,S.386 就是一個不重要的法案,要過不過,除了起草人
以外沒人在乎。在這種情況之下,Scott 確實沒有理由為了一個即將下野的總統以及一票
沒有投票權的移民來得罪未來美國政壇上的關鍵人物。所以可以說,Trump 沒連任,S.386
就是必然的結果之一。這只是早晚的問題而己。
Trump 幹得好不好?每個人心中自有一把尺。但是就反對 S.386 的群眾而言,反 Trump
而去支持 Biden/Harris 那就真的很詭異了。奇怪的是,這種人不但有,為數還不少。一
邊反 386 一邊還配合 D 黨各種帶風向?這真是令人不解。
我想跟各位一樣身在海外,尤其是在美國的台灣移民講,拜託不要只看電視臉書來了解美
國政治。我常跟朋友說,參與反 386 這件事情就是我的藍藥丸。透過參與反 386,我幾乎
是被迫的去了解每一個政治新聞背後的緣由。看到美國媒體如何的醜化不討喜的政治人物
,選擇性的 fact check。也就是這樣,把我一個傳統左派支持者一路推到最右邊。我這樣
說並不是說媒體就一定對或錯。而是,花點時間去找 C-SPAN 原始影音,國會網站上都有
很多原始資料可供參考,就是要花時間去看而己。這應該比媒體餵你什麼你就吃有什麼來
得有意義吧。
最後,這美好的一仗我們已經打過了。雖然這不是我們想看到的結果,但是我非常感謝石
虎小隊的成員,在這一年多時間種摸索潛入敵營套取情報,作美圖在 twitter 帶風向,
上訪議員辦公室跟敵人互撕,各種數據收集運算真的發揮很大的效果。我們針對 S.368
對各州的 job landscape 研究吸引到很多議員主動向我們索取報告,也順利吸引到像
chuck 一樣的反 S.386 大 V 在廣播中討論我們的研究。我們的好戰友 FAPA 也是真的各
種努力幫台灣人爭取權益。之前台灣專屬綠卡的提案也是出自 FAPA 之手。版上有很多人
怪罪 FAPA 在這事上不聞不問。並不是這樣子的。
這事情還沒完全定案下來,跟美國總統選舉也有一定的關連。這層級超出我們草根團體的
射程很多,但是在這最後一兩個月我們就是會去努力看看。
--
→ k_______n:我推的平權政策 都不著重種族之間的平等,改強調種族之間的差別待遇
→ k_______n:年輕人都很歡迎 但就是太過激進 另外再特別給非裔專屬特權
→ k_______n:這兩個配起來非常棒 最好是加點街頭暴力
推 j_________n:那就不算是種族平等了吧..
→ k_______n:不是種族平等 這平權政策 看起來跟種族主義90%很像
→ p____u:那就是種族主義阿幹
--
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